Same-sex marriage is safe.

[c9]

Same-sex marriage is safe. Everybody breathe.

Harper has 124 seats, and 6-10 of those are queer-positive MPs.

NDP has 29, all queer-positive.

Bloc has 51, most queer-positive. Last time, they voted 43-5 in favour, with 6 abstaining.

Liberals have 103, most queer-positive. If at least 75 of them vote for equality, same-sex marriage is safe. Last time they voted 95-32 in favour.

Additionally, Stephen Harper is a smart guy. He knows that far-right social policies do not get one elected in Canada, and that when he calls his free vote on same-sex marriage he basically needs to lose. Otherwise it's scary Conservatives again. He wants fiscal changes and Conservative power, not ultra-right-wing social policies. Yes, some of his MPs have a different agenda, but he does not.

I'm not too nervous.

I hope.

Comments

[skeezix1000.livejournal.com]

Equal marriage is quite safe.

First, the Tories know fighting equal marriage will not help them. Their own internal polling must have told them it was a loser issue, otherwise they wouldn't have tried to put it behind them on the first day of the campaign, trying to never speak of it again. Not the wedge issue some right-wingers had expected. With such a thin minority, they can't afford too much time or energy fighting a lost battle. Especially when Harper's own position is so open to attack, given it makes no legal sense whatsoever.

Second, as you have figured, they'd probably lose a free vote in the Commons.

Third, in the unlikely event the Tories got some crazy bill through the Commons, the Senate is still Liberal dominated. Senators are normally reluctant to vote against bills supported by the Commons, but speculation is that they will do so when faced with a bill that is likely unconstitutional on an issue that has already been decided.

Finally, given the jurisprudence to date, the courts will kill any "traditional marriage" bill that comes their way.

[p00kster.livejournal.com]

I still do hope he puts it to a free vote -- I'm quie excited for Harper to embarass himself.

As someone on the CBC commented... there will be bumper stickers like "Don't Blame Me, I Voted Libeal."

I also hope that mugs and t-shirts are made.

I've begun by making an icon for msn which has the gay cowboy picture of Harper juxtaposed with: "This is my PM. I can't make this stuff up."

[p00kster.livejournal.com]

*Liberal

[rostin79.livejournal.com]

thought 1 for me was "what about marriage"

Thought 2, "what about weed?"

is that safe too? :)

Though I am glad to read this (and hope it stays that way). I saw the results on the news, and I did the usuaul "clutch" inside, similar to election results in the States.

But this means there will be another vote for same-sex marriage? And if it can be changed, what is the point of law then? (unless I'm looking at it wrong, which is quite possible). Why have an institution where you can adopt new policies, then get rid of them a few years later?

From silly to serious in 2 seconds. Damn.

[c9.livejournal.com]

The marijuana laws were never actually changed - that bill died in the 2004 election, and was never re-introduced. The Tories won't introduce it, so I suspect we're back to "wink and ignore it" enforcement for a few years.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Another vote on equal marriage? Probably.
Will it reverse the equality? Probably not.
Why have a vote? Because so many right-wing voters demand it.
Why is equality going to survive? Because so many Canadians support it, and the courts will protect it (after an expensive court fight) if necessary.

[mightycodking.livejournal.com]

"And if it can be changed, what is the point of law then? (unless I'm looking at it wrong, which is quite possible). Why have an institution where you can adopt new policies, then get rid of them a few years later?"

Parliament can pass any law it wants. Anyone can then challenge that law in court, and if it is found to be unconstitutional it can be overturned. Due to the common law practice in most of Canada, precedence is relevant.

There are a lot of misconceptions about what the courts have and have not said on various issues. As Andrew Coyne points out, the supreme court has technically not even ruled out anti-abortion legislation. They ruled the previous law invalid but did not preclude a differently worded law.

Likewise, I have read that the Supreme Court battle over same-sex marriage has not taken place yet, and cannot take place UNLESS Parliament passes a law against it and it is challenged. So, Harper could introduce a free vote (as he promised), which is likely to fail on the floor. Even if it passed, it could then be taken to court. Only in the unlikely event that the Court ruled it constitutional, or ruled it unconstitutional but the Feds invoked the notwithstanding clause, would there be any changes. The notwithstanding clause will not be invoked; this was a Martin desperation tactic.

Someone on my friend list ("mightygodking") does a good job articulating why same sex marriage are in no immediate danger. Most of the Liberals who lost seats to Conservatives were already against same sex marriage. The social conservatives simply don't have the votes. Harper's aim will be to have the free vote and spin it as "I made a promise and I kept it" so that moderates are not too pissed off at him.

[rostin79.livejournal.com]

oh wow, thanks for that :). and at first I thought you were referencing yourself there at the end. Took me a second.

For a lot of this, I realize I have very little knowledge of Canadian Government, and most of it comes from the US press, so it's even more construed.

This helps clear things up a bit. I need to know more, I feel. Oh man, coudl I acutally want to go back to my US government class and then take foreign politics? Oh how times have changed :).

[-kissyfur-.livejournal.com]

I hope Stephen Harper ends up with a gay son, who then marries a black, French speaking transexual NDP!

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

Hm, there's only about a 1/3 chance of that happening. She could be a lesbian, you know. :-)

[nihilicious.livejournal.com]

He better keep his son away from the Afro-Franco-Tranny NDP caucus then!

[(Anonymous)]

I'm not quite as confident. There are enough "unknowns" to make it hard to tally.

But I hope you're bang on!

[nihilicious.livejournal.com]

That was me!

[cap-hill-latte.livejournal.com]

Friends of a friend are already planning a "proactive-elopement" for this weekend. I think they're jumping the gun.

[...]

I really wanted to wrap this up as a shotgun wedding/gun control/Harper joke, but humour is eluding me at the moment. Sorry.

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

Shotgun weddings -- still A-OK.

Handgun weddings -- no dice.