Same-sex marriage is safe.

[c9]

Same-sex marriage is safe. Everybody breathe.

Harper has 124 seats, and 6-10 of those are queer-positive MPs.

NDP has 29, all queer-positive.

Bloc has 51, most queer-positive. Last time, they voted 43-5 in favour, with 6 abstaining.

Liberals have 103, most queer-positive. If at least 75 of them vote for equality, same-sex marriage is safe. Last time they voted 95-32 in favour.

Additionally, Stephen Harper is a smart guy. He knows that far-right social policies do not get one elected in Canada, and that when he calls his free vote on same-sex marriage he basically needs to lose. Otherwise it's scary Conservatives again. He wants fiscal changes and Conservative power, not ultra-right-wing social policies. Yes, some of his MPs have a different agenda, but he does not.

I'm not too nervous.

I hope.

Comments

[mightycodking.livejournal.com]

"And if it can be changed, what is the point of law then? (unless I'm looking at it wrong, which is quite possible). Why have an institution where you can adopt new policies, then get rid of them a few years later?"

Parliament can pass any law it wants. Anyone can then challenge that law in court, and if it is found to be unconstitutional it can be overturned. Due to the common law practice in most of Canada, precedence is relevant.

There are a lot of misconceptions about what the courts have and have not said on various issues. As Andrew Coyne points out, the supreme court has technically not even ruled out anti-abortion legislation. They ruled the previous law invalid but did not preclude a differently worded law.

Likewise, I have read that the Supreme Court battle over same-sex marriage has not taken place yet, and cannot take place UNLESS Parliament passes a law against it and it is challenged. So, Harper could introduce a free vote (as he promised), which is likely to fail on the floor. Even if it passed, it could then be taken to court. Only in the unlikely event that the Court ruled it constitutional, or ruled it unconstitutional but the Feds invoked the notwithstanding clause, would there be any changes. The notwithstanding clause will not be invoked; this was a Martin desperation tactic.

Someone on my friend list ("mightygodking") does a good job articulating why same sex marriage are in no immediate danger. Most of the Liberals who lost seats to Conservatives were already against same sex marriage. The social conservatives simply don't have the votes. Harper's aim will be to have the free vote and spin it as "I made a promise and I kept it" so that moderates are not too pissed off at him.

[rostin79.livejournal.com]

oh wow, thanks for that :). and at first I thought you were referencing yourself there at the end. Took me a second.

For a lot of this, I realize I have very little knowledge of Canadian Government, and most of it comes from the US press, so it's even more construed.

This helps clear things up a bit. I need to know more, I feel. Oh man, coudl I acutally want to go back to my US government class and then take foreign politics? Oh how times have changed :).