Same-sex marriage is safe.

[c9]

Same-sex marriage is safe. Everybody breathe.

Harper has 124 seats, and 6-10 of those are queer-positive MPs.

NDP has 29, all queer-positive.

Bloc has 51, most queer-positive. Last time, they voted 43-5 in favour, with 6 abstaining.

Liberals have 103, most queer-positive. If at least 75 of them vote for equality, same-sex marriage is safe. Last time they voted 95-32 in favour.

Additionally, Stephen Harper is a smart guy. He knows that far-right social policies do not get one elected in Canada, and that when he calls his free vote on same-sex marriage he basically needs to lose. Otherwise it's scary Conservatives again. He wants fiscal changes and Conservative power, not ultra-right-wing social policies. Yes, some of his MPs have a different agenda, but he does not.

I'm not too nervous.

I hope.

Comments

[skeezix1000.livejournal.com]

Equal marriage is quite safe.

First, the Tories know fighting equal marriage will not help them. Their own internal polling must have told them it was a loser issue, otherwise they wouldn't have tried to put it behind them on the first day of the campaign, trying to never speak of it again. Not the wedge issue some right-wingers had expected. With such a thin minority, they can't afford too much time or energy fighting a lost battle. Especially when Harper's own position is so open to attack, given it makes no legal sense whatsoever.

Second, as you have figured, they'd probably lose a free vote in the Commons.

Third, in the unlikely event the Tories got some crazy bill through the Commons, the Senate is still Liberal dominated. Senators are normally reluctant to vote against bills supported by the Commons, but speculation is that they will do so when faced with a bill that is likely unconstitutional on an issue that has already been decided.

Finally, given the jurisprudence to date, the courts will kill any "traditional marriage" bill that comes their way.