ELXN

[c9]

In news releases on the wire, election-related stuff appears to have the "word" elxn on it. Is that laziness? Seriously. Anyway, the government will fall tomorrow, and Tuesday morning the Prime Minister will visit the Governor General and ask her to dissolve Parliament. She will do so (it's been 17 months, reasonable amount of time) and we'll all head for the polls on January 16 or 23. I hope January 23rd, so I can hold a reasonable party. On the 16th I have a rehearsal, so it will be a late party if that's the date.

Trivia: Canadian federal elections can be any length, so PM the PM could call the election for just about any date he chooses. But it must be a Monday, at least 36 days in the future from the date the writ is dropped.

I wrote some predictions in a comment in a friend's journal, and decided to save them here too. My predictions (which I'm notoriously bad at):

1. Green won't win a seat. Their best candidate ever won just over 10,000 votes in Saanich-Gulf Islands, only 16.7% of the vote. This election, being a rerun of last time (but nastier), will probably drop his tally.

2. The NDP, as much as I want them to get back to 40+ seats right now, will not do even 28. Our flirtation in 1988 with a three-party system ended in 1993, and they'll be fighting the same demon as last time: "vote liberal to stop the tories, even if you like the NDP." As my friend nihilicious points out, if you vote for someone you don't actually support, you're simply guaranteeing a government you don't support, rather than risking it. I see the NDP at 21 seats, because they can target the close ones from last summer and give up on the distant ridings.

3. The Liberals will either win a ten-or-less-seat minority, or the Tories will win a 10-or-less-seat minority. I agree with you that it will be very close. I am so disappointed with Paul Martin that I think a low Tory minority might be good for us, but I'm not sure yet.

4. Martin's gone unless (a) he wins a majority, or (b) he wins/loses and tiny minority, where there will be another election within a year. Starting fresh under those circumstances are dangerous, and Martin still controls the entire party machinery.

5. Harper's staying unless they get less ridings than last time. The Tories may, possibly, have figured out that Canadians dislike him less the more they see he doesn't *actually* breathe fire. If they replace him, they lose the familiarity that is actually growing. Also, hopefully they've realized that the more Harper is exposed to reality, the more down-to-earth and realistic he gets. Also good.

6. Jack Layton is doing good things for the NDP, but if the riding count drops back to say a dozen or so, I can't see him being happy, or others feeling like it's working. He should stay, and I want him to stay regardless, but we do like our knives-in-the-back here in Canada.

7. I want to say that the Bloc will only do 55 if we're lucky, but I suspect it will approach 60. How many anglo ridings are there? Only a dozen, I think...

Hmmm.

Comments

[jdhorner.livejournal.com]

it's so annoying to not know what any of this means.
and once i start and try to look it all up, i just get more confused.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Ask me questions! I'm happy to play tour guide around the political landscape! :)

[nihilicious.livejournal.com]

I think it's gonna be another Liberal government. I want to be crazy and say a majority, but that's stupid. I just think that there's nothing's changed enough between this election and the last one. Sure, we no more about Liberal corruption, but if people were going to vote based on that they would have done so last time. The people who had to hold their noses to vote Liberal last time will do the same this time.

How much do I love that you're quoting me in other people's livejournals?

[c9.livejournal.com]

I'm trying to start a "Quote nihilicious The Most, Win Something" contest. But stealthily.

[c9.livejournal.com]

I don't think that a Liberal majority is stupid. (I think this one *would* be, but that's another matter.) Liberals have recovered from minorities a few times now. It's in their blood; Survivor is actually about Liberals.

Canadians are weird though. We respond to immediacy, then fall back to comfort. If the Tories can keep corruption out there, which they're proving poor at so far, they could make some gains over Ontario. My neighbourhood is where this is all going to play out. If they can take suburban- and industrial-Ontario, they've got it.

I find myself actually hoping that both the Tories and NDP make gains. Since a minority Tory government is the only Tory option, realistically, it's a chance for 1988 all over again for the NDP.

[purplemartini.livejournal.com]

Then there are those of us in riding where the sponsorship scandal hasn't really had any impact. Of course, our MP isminister of Indian affairs and that could impact his relection. I seriously doubt it tho. It's a toss up tho, should we throw our vote away on an NDP candidate who doesn't stand a chance in hell of being elected or send it to the Liberals just to bolster the gap between them and any other candidate. It will be interesting to see who the conservatives are going to run in our riding (NOT that I'd ever vote conservative!). I don't think there's anyone out there who could even touch Andy Scott.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it's easy to talk nationally, but it really is 308 little elections. Your riding in 2004:

7 360 NDP
14 193 Conservative
997 Green
19 819 Liberal

Keeping Andy Scott looks like the best approach there, from an "I like a Liberal/NDP cocktail most of the time" perspective. The NDP are certainly not going to win Fredericton, that's for sure. :)

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

The Tories may, possibly, have figured out that Canadians dislike him less the more they see he doesn't *actually* breathe fire.

As I started reading that sentence, I felt sure you were going to say "The Tories may, possibly, have figured out that Canadians dislike him less if they don't actually see him."

I know I would!

[c9.livejournal.com]

Well yeah, there's a bit of that too.

[amnewsboy.livejournal.com]

Actually, we're more likely to abbreviate it as ELEX than ELXN. I don't think I've ever seen ELXN before.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Interesting! My exposure is the website of a prominent former Liberal strategist who posts releases he receives. Maybe he's actually placing that term, I have no proof.

[canuckboy.livejournal.com]

I'm in one of the more interesting ridings - St. Paul's. Any thoughts on how close Dr. Bennett's win will be?

For the record, right now I'm leaning NDP. They're running an economist here; that is common sense!

[c9.livejournal.com]

2004 results:

32 171 Liberal
11 226 Conservative
3 031 Green
8 667 NDP

No idea how close her win will be, but your riding doesn't appear to be a big risk for the Liberals. I could see the NDP increasing their vote a bit, and the Tories increasing their vote a good bit... maybe cutting her lead to 10,000 or so, at most. Just guessing of course.

[canuckboy.livejournal.com]

I'm pretty sure she's going to win, however she will have some strong competition:

Liberal candidate is a cabinet minister.
NDP candidate is an economist who was once chief of RBC Securities.
Tory candidate is Peter Kent. Yes - the newsman.

It's going to be interesting.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Oh yeah, I forgot you were in Kent's riding! Not that he actually lives there or anything. The star candidate factor will make things closer I think. I put the margin below 5000 now. :)

[canuckboy.livejournal.com]

I do think that Dr. Bennett will win, however it's going to be close.

I'd peg it thusly:

Liberal 20,000
PC 12,000
NDP 10,000