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c9In news releases on the wire, election-related stuff appears to have the "word" elxn on it. Is that laziness? Seriously. Anyway, the government will fall tomorrow, and Tuesday morning the Prime Minister will visit the Governor General and ask her to dissolve Parliament. She will do so (it's been 17 months, reasonable amount of time) and we'll all head for the polls on January 16 or 23. I hope January 23rd, so I can hold a reasonable party. On the 16th I have a rehearsal, so it will be a late party if that's the date.
Trivia: Canadian federal elections can be any length, so PM the PM could call the election for just about any date he chooses. But it must be a Monday, at least 36 days in the future from the date the writ is dropped.
I wrote some predictions in a comment in a friend's journal, and decided to save them here too. My predictions (which I'm notoriously bad at):
1. Green won't win a seat. Their best candidate ever won just over 10,000 votes in Saanich-Gulf Islands, only 16.7% of the vote. This election, being a rerun of last time (but nastier), will probably drop his tally.
2. The NDP, as much as I want them to get back to 40+ seats right now, will not do even 28. Our flirtation in 1988 with a three-party system ended in 1993, and they'll be fighting the same demon as last time: "vote liberal to stop the tories, even if you like the NDP." As my friend![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
nihilicious points out, if you vote for someone you don't actually support, you're simply guaranteeing a government you don't support, rather than risking it. I see the NDP at 21 seats, because they can target the close ones from last summer and give up on the distant ridings.
3. The Liberals will either win a ten-or-less-seat minority, or the Tories will win a 10-or-less-seat minority. I agree with you that it will be very close. I am so disappointed with Paul Martin that I think a low Tory minority might be good for us, but I'm not sure yet.
4. Martin's gone unless (a) he wins a majority, or (b) he wins/loses and tiny minority, where there will be another election within a year. Starting fresh under those circumstances are dangerous, and Martin still controls the entire party machinery.
5. Harper's staying unless they get less ridings than last time. The Tories may, possibly, have figured out that Canadians dislike him less the more they see he doesn't *actually* breathe fire. If they replace him, they lose the familiarity that is actually growing. Also, hopefully they've realized that the more Harper is exposed to reality, the more down-to-earth and realistic he gets. Also good.
6. Jack Layton is doing good things for the NDP, but if the riding count drops back to say a dozen or so, I can't see him being happy, or others feeling like it's working. He should stay, and I want him to stay regardless, but we do like our knives-in-the-back here in Canada.
7. I want to say that the Bloc will only do 55 if we're lucky, but I suspect it will approach 60. How many anglo ridings are there? Only a dozen, I think...
Hmmm.
Trivia: Canadian federal elections can be any length, so PM the PM could call the election for just about any date he chooses. But it must be a Monday, at least 36 days in the future from the date the writ is dropped.
I wrote some predictions in a comment in a friend's journal, and decided to save them here too. My predictions (which I'm notoriously bad at):
1. Green won't win a seat. Their best candidate ever won just over 10,000 votes in Saanich-Gulf Islands, only 16.7% of the vote. This election, being a rerun of last time (but nastier), will probably drop his tally.
2. The NDP, as much as I want them to get back to 40+ seats right now, will not do even 28. Our flirtation in 1988 with a three-party system ended in 1993, and they'll be fighting the same demon as last time: "vote liberal to stop the tories, even if you like the NDP." As my friend
nihilicious points out, if you vote for someone you don't actually support, you're simply guaranteeing a government you don't support, rather than risking it. I see the NDP at 21 seats, because they can target the close ones from last summer and give up on the distant ridings.3. The Liberals will either win a ten-or-less-seat minority, or the Tories will win a 10-or-less-seat minority. I agree with you that it will be very close. I am so disappointed with Paul Martin that I think a low Tory minority might be good for us, but I'm not sure yet.
4. Martin's gone unless (a) he wins a majority, or (b) he wins/loses and tiny minority, where there will be another election within a year. Starting fresh under those circumstances are dangerous, and Martin still controls the entire party machinery.
5. Harper's staying unless they get less ridings than last time. The Tories may, possibly, have figured out that Canadians dislike him less the more they see he doesn't *actually* breathe fire. If they replace him, they lose the familiarity that is actually growing. Also, hopefully they've realized that the more Harper is exposed to reality, the more down-to-earth and realistic he gets. Also good.
6. Jack Layton is doing good things for the NDP, but if the riding count drops back to say a dozen or so, I can't see him being happy, or others feeling like it's working. He should stay, and I want him to stay regardless, but we do like our knives-in-the-back here in Canada.
7. I want to say that the Bloc will only do 55 if we're lucky, but I suspect it will approach 60. How many anglo ridings are there? Only a dozen, I think...
Hmmm.
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no subject
Date: 2005-11-27 06:02 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-11-27 06:29 pm (UTC)I'd peg it thusly:
Liberal 20,000
PC 12,000
NDP 10,000