Overnight Results

I think the 2004 election scarred me a bit. In 2004, the NDP had almost 40 seats at one point in the night, but they dropped, and dropped, and dropped, down to only 19.

I had a dream that the NDP seat count dropped dramatically overnight as they counted all the rural polls, and they ended up with even less than last time, and the Tories shot to a majority. Eep.

Five things I'm happy about:

• It's a minority, which I believe will be more accountable and more centrist
• Paul Martin is resigning as Liberal leader; I believe he was not a healthy leader for that party
• The NDP *almost* holds the balance of power again with 29 seats, meaning NDP priorities have a good chance of staying in the news and even in the legislative agenda
• The Conservatives did far better than expected in Québec, kicking the BQ down a little bit. I am happy to see the rise of another federalist option in Québec.
• Olivia Chow won. Last time, her defeat really deflated the NDP and Jack Layton in particular. He covered it well, but this time around it'll be different.

So chin up, young persons; be not depressed.

Same-sex marriage is safe.

Same-sex marriage is safe. Everybody breathe.

Harper has 124 seats, and 6-10 of those are queer-positive MPs.

NDP has 29, all queer-positive.

Bloc has 51, most queer-positive. Last time, they voted 43-5 in favour, with 6 abstaining.

Liberals have 103, most queer-positive. If at least 75 of them vote for equality, same-sex marriage is safe. Last time they voted 95-32 in favour.

Additionally, Stephen Harper is a smart guy. He knows that far-right social policies do not get one elected in Canada, and that when he calls his free vote on same-sex marriage he basically needs to lose. Otherwise it's scary Conservatives again. He wants fiscal changes and Conservative power, not ultra-right-wing social policies. Yes, some of his MPs have a different agenda, but he does not.

I'm not too nervous.

I hope.

How Did Cam's Predictions Turn Out?

I made various predictions in various places. Here's how I did:

1. Green won't win a set. Correct
2. The NDP, as much as I want them to get back to 40+ seats right now, will not do even 28. Wrong, happily.
3. (December) The Liberals will either win a ten-or-less-seat minority, or the Tories will win a 10-or-less-seat minority. Wrong, but the difference is only 21 seats, still fairly low.
4. Martin's gone. Correct
5. Harper's staying. Correct
6. Jack Layton's staying. Correct
7. I want to say that the Bloc will only do 55 if we're lucky, but I suspect it will approach 60. Wrong, happily.
8. (January) Conservative minority or maybe even majority. Correct
9. Liberal attack ads would either win the election or be mocked for decades to come. Correct (the latter)


Riding Profiles:
1. Kitchener Centre: I didn't explicitly predict, but kinda thought Liberal. Correct
2. Fredericton: I said Liberal. Correct
3. Kitchener—Waterloo: I didn't explicitly predict, but kinda thought Liberal. Correct
4. Vancouver Centre: I didn't predict, and had no idea. Hedy Fry won, BTW.
5. Western Arctic: I said NDP. Correct
6. Halifax: I said NDP. Correct
7. Prince Edward—Hastings: I said Conservative. Correct
8. Thunder Bay—Rainy River: I didn't predict, and had no idea. Boshcoff (Lib) won.
9. Skeena—Bulkley Valley: I said NDP. Correct
10. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie: I said Bloc. Correct
11. Calgary Centre: I said Conservative. Correct
12. Nepean—Carleton: I said Conservative. Correct
13. Westmount—Ville-Marie: I said Liberal. Correct. Holy crap, the BQ came fourth here.
14. Tobique-Mataquac: I said Conservative. Correct
15. Kitchener—Conestoga: I said Conservative. Correct
16. Toronto—Danforth: I said NDP. Correct
17. Ottawa West—Nepean: I said Conservative. Correct
18. Trinity—Spadina: I said NDP. Correct

(looks up)

Wow. I didn't mean for this to be a "Cam rocks" post, I thought I had fucked up far more of my predictions. Maybe I should find a high-paying political strategist job. I'm sure that's stable employment.

Contest Results

I ran a contest which was rather unpopular -- only three valid entries! Oh well.

mightycodking wins with a 22 seat spread and 8/12 predictions correct.

canuckboy comes in second with a 57 seat spread and 9.5/12 predictions correct.

jamielb comes in third with a 76 seat spread and 7/12 predictions correct.

I promised prizes. If you three send me your mailing addresses, I will follow through on this promise. :)

Damning with faint praise

Damien Cox of the Star delivers the best line about the Leafs-Sens game on Monday night: "Sundin was, in fact, very close to being the best Swedish-born captain on the ice."