Well that didn't take long.

Ten months after the grand takeover of Vortex, Club NRG is kaput. Halifax is back to the dance bar everybody loves to hate, and the leather/bear/misc bar everyone loves to have an opinion about without actually going to. History always repeats, just like shampoo.

I call it "House of Commons, in Excel."

A graph (by me) of the seats won in the House of Commons in each general election since 1867 (when Canada was founded, for those unaware). I found it interesting to look at.

Items to note:

• The dotted line shows 50%+1 seats, the number required to have majority control of the House. In a majority, the governing party gets up to five years in power, whereas in a minority the opposition can topple the government on money bills and confidence motions (as we saw 30-odd days ago).
• Canada has a long tradition of protest parties, it's not just recent. For example, the Anti-Confederation Party at far left won 18 of Nova Scotia's 19 seats in the first general election, and their goal was to reverse Nova Scotia's joining of Confederation. Britain wouldn't let it happen though.
• Another protest party, Social Credit (burgundy) actually led in a way to the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties (green). You can see that the Conservatives' lowest points are far less so when combined with the Progressives in the 1920s and Reform/CA in the 90s.
• You can also see CCF, which became the NDP in 1961 or so. There really shouldn't even be a gap there.
• There have been both United Farmers of Alberta and United Farmers of Ontario parties. Only UFA really got anywhere.
• The Conservative Party joined with the Progressives in 1942, to create the Progressive-Conservative Party of Canada. Or, as one pundit liked to call it, "the backwards forwards party." In 2003, the PCs officially dissolved upon merging with the Canadian Alliance, but I drew the C -> PC -> C sequence as one line, for historically speaking it's the same party, just a little righter than it used to be.
• The Tories are sometimes called the party of Confederation, but the Liberals are nicknamed "Canada's Natural Governing Party."

Judging by the squiggle pattern (because of course that's how these predictions are done), I predict a Conservative minority. We're about due.

Sources: Wikipedia, www.parl.gc.ca

Profile 1: Kitchener Centre

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Kitchener Centre
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35037.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35037, Kitchener Centre, is known for the strength of its German heritage, with a nine per cent German population. Manufacturing is the most important industry with retail trade second. Average family income is $64,306 and unemployment is 5.9 per cent.

Population: 109,800

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Steven Cage (Conservative Party of Canada)
Tony Maas (Green Party of Canada)
Karen Redman (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Martin Suter (Communist Party of Canada)
Richard Walsh-Bowers (New Democratic Party)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	47.1%	27.5%				19.3%	6.0%
2000	52.8%		13.8%	26.1%		6.9%	0.4%
1997	48.0%		22.8%		19.9%	9.4%	0.0%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-1997), PC (1984-1993), Liberal (1980-1984), PC (1979-1980), and Liberal (1968-1979).

The Liberal and NDP candidates are the same as in 2004. This is traditionally a bellwether riding, being carried by the nationally winning party. The drop from 40% to under 30% as the riding was reshaped in the 90s suggest that the urban progressive voter holds more sway than in the past, meaning that the riding will stay Liberal unless the Tories manage to (a) increase voter anger a lot, and (b) stay completely non-scary. One other note is Karen Redman's Cabinet role as Whip. This gives her a small amount of celebrity status, which sometimes can bolster support. If anger increases too much, being a very public face for government can hurt (see Nepean—Carleton), but she's important-but-invisible. Maybe they cancel each other out.

www.electionprediction.org says: Liberal, might be close.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs third. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote Liberal here. If you prefer to strengthen the NDP, even in the unlikely event you end up with a Conservative MP, then vote NDP here.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is supportive, but this might be because her job as Whip is to "whip" the Liberal MPs to vote with the government, rather than against. (http://www.equal-marriage.ca/resource.php?id=275)


( Explanations and non-riding-specific information )

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.