Profile 1: Kitchener Centre

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Kitchener Centre
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35037.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35037, Kitchener Centre, is known for the strength of its German heritage, with a nine per cent German population. Manufacturing is the most important industry with retail trade second. Average family income is $64,306 and unemployment is 5.9 per cent.

Population: 109,800

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Steven Cage (Conservative Party of Canada)
Tony Maas (Green Party of Canada)
Karen Redman (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Martin Suter (Communist Party of Canada)
Richard Walsh-Bowers (New Democratic Party)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	47.1%	27.5%				19.3%	6.0%
2000	52.8%		13.8%	26.1%		6.9%	0.4%
1997	48.0%		22.8%		19.9%	9.4%	0.0%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-1997), PC (1984-1993), Liberal (1980-1984), PC (1979-1980), and Liberal (1968-1979).

The Liberal and NDP candidates are the same as in 2004. This is traditionally a bellwether riding, being carried by the nationally winning party. The drop from 40% to under 30% as the riding was reshaped in the 90s suggest that the urban progressive voter holds more sway than in the past, meaning that the riding will stay Liberal unless the Tories manage to (a) increase voter anger a lot, and (b) stay completely non-scary. One other note is Karen Redman's Cabinet role as Whip. This gives her a small amount of celebrity status, which sometimes can bolster support. If anger increases too much, being a very public face for government can hurt (see Nepean—Carleton), but she's important-but-invisible. Maybe they cancel each other out.

www.electionprediction.org says: Liberal, might be close.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs third. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote Liberal here. If you prefer to strengthen the NDP, even in the unlikely event you end up with a Conservative MP, then vote NDP here.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is supportive, but this might be because her job as Whip is to "whip" the Liberal MPs to vote with the government, rather than against. (http://www.equal-marriage.ca/resource.php?id=275)


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.

Comments

[cap-hill-latte.livejournal.com]

I’m surprised that Kitchener Centre is Liberal. You know, with the Hitler youth and all.

[c9.livejournal.com]

They're too busy showing angst to vote.

[jdhorner.livejournal.com]

i love all this info.
it's kind of funny, though, because i think you're more into this than the candidates themselves are!

;-)

[c9.livejournal.com]

It's probably true. Vinny threatened to allow me to watch Star Trek tonight, just to get me out of politics mode. :)

[c9.livejournal.com]

LOL

Not on vacation.

Designing the template took just a day. All the info comes from other sites, all I do is combine it and sometimes add my own opinion. Seriously, maybe 30 minutes at absolute most per riding. :)

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

I'm fascinated. Do mine! Do mine!!!

[(Anonymous)]

Probably the most disingenuous assement and discussion on the riding you are likely to see anywhere....congrats you hit the credibility crapper with this.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Well, that's a fascinating addition to the discussion. Thanks for signing your name and actually pointing out things you disagree with. You really hit the class-act angle with this. :)

There's very little written above that isn't simply a fact -- I really didn't make much of a prediction at all. Some other ridings I did, but this one I don't know very well yet, since we've only lived here since late 2004.