c9: (Change We Can Believe In)
[personal profile] c9
One week.

One week and we may see a new presidential administration in the United States.

One week and the most powerful and influential country in the world may begin a gradual rehabilitation of its reputation around the world, and a gradual improvement in its approach to decision-making, secularism, and foreign policy.


Is he going to do it?

Yes. I still fear the electoral machine of the Republican Party, but I think I must concede that my preferred candidate may actually win. Simulations, projections, and poll tracking even on Republican-biased sites all show a big Obama win. FiveThirtyEight, which I think is pretty close to what will happen, projects an Obama win over 96% of the time.



What's his closing argument?

Barack Obama's closing argument. Plus, watch NBC, ABC, CBS, or Fox on Wednesday evening to watch his 30-minute speech to the nationworld.

I ask you to believe – not just in my ability to bring about change, but in yours.

I know this change is possible. Because I have seen it over the last twenty-one months. Because in this campaign, I have had the privilege to witness what is best in America.

I’ve seen it in lines of voters that stretched around schools and churches; in the young people who cast their ballot for the first time, and those not so young folks who got involved again after a very long time. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut back their hours than see their friends lose their jobs; in the neighbors who take a stranger in when the floodwaters rise; in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb. I’ve seen it in the faces of the men and women I’ve met at countless rallies and town halls across the country, men and women who speak of their struggles but also of their hopes and dreams.

I still remember the email that a woman named Robyn sent me after I met her in Ft. Lauderdale. Sometime after our event, her son nearly went into cardiac arrest, and was diagnosed with a heart condition that could only be treated with a procedure that cost tens of thousands of dollars. Her insurance company refused to pay, and their family just didn’t have that kind of money.

In her email, Robyn wrote, “I ask only this of you – on the days where you feel so tired you can’t think of uttering another word to the people, think of us. When those who oppose you have you down, reach deep and fight back harder.”

Ohio, that’s what hope is – that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that something better is waiting around the bend; that insists there are better days ahead. If we’re willing to work for it. If we’re willing to shed our fears and our doubts. If we’re willing to reach deep down inside ourselves when we’re tired and come back fighting harder.

Hope! That’s what kept some of our parents and grandparents going when times were tough. What led them to say, “Maybe I can’t go to college, but if I save a little bit each week my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but if I work really hard my child can open one of her own.” It’s what led immigrants from distant lands to come to these shores against great odds and carve a new life for their families in America; what led those who couldn’t vote to march and organize and stand for freedom; that led them to cry out, “It may look dark tonight, but if I hold on to hope, tomorrow will be brighter.”

That’s what this election is about. That is the choice we face right now.

Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does.


Is it that important?

Yes. I could point to many things: policy, patience, thoughtfulness, history, ability, honesty, determination, speaking truth to power, and more. And god knows I'm still young and naive and no one election is really as important as each one feels at the time. But still.

Better than my reasons, or even his reasons, are his words. From his landmark speech on race relations in March 2008:
There is one story in particularly that I'd like to leave you with today - a story I told when I had the great honor of speaking on Dr. King's birthday at his home church, Ebenezer Baptist, in Atlanta.

There is a young, twenty-three year old white woman named Ashley Baia who organized for our campaign in Florence, South Carolina. She had been working to organize a mostly African-American community since the beginning of this campaign, and one day she was at a roundtable discussion where everyone went around telling their story and why they were there.

And Ashley said that when she was nine years old, her mother got cancer. And because she had to miss days of work, she was let go and lost her health care. They had to file for bankruptcy, and that's when Ashley decided that she had to do something to help her mom.

She knew that food was one of their most expensive costs, and so Ashley convinced her mother that what she really liked and really wanted to eat more than anything else was mustard and relish sandwiches. Because that was the cheapest way to eat.

She did this for a year until her mom got better, and she told everyone at the roundtable that the reason she joined our campaign was so that she could help the millions of other children in the country who want and need to help their parents too.

Now Ashley might have made a different choice. Perhaps somebody told her along the way that the source of her mother's problems were blacks who were on welfare and too lazy to work, or Hispanics who were coming into the country illegally. But she didn't. She sought out allies in her fight against injustice.

Anyway, Ashley finishes her story and then goes around the room and asks everyone else why they're supporting the campaign. They all have different stories and reasons. Many bring up a specific issue. And finally they come to this elderly black man who's been sitting there quietly the entire time. And Ashley asks him why he's there. And he does not bring up a specific issue. He does not say health care or the economy. He does not say education or the war. He does not say that he was there because of Barack Obama. He simply says to everyone in the room, "I am here because of Ashley."

"I'm here because of Ashley." By itself, that single moment of recognition between that young white girl and that old black man is not enough. It is not enough to give health care to the sick, or jobs to the jobless, or education to our children.

But it is where we start. It is where our union grows stronger. And as so many generations have come to realize over the course of the two-hundred and twenty one years since a band of patriots signed that document in Philadelphia, that is where the perfection begins.
Reading or watching the full address is worth your time.

All the best on the 4th!

Date: 2008-10-28 12:18 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lifein2x3.livejournal.com
I'll do my part. I live in a city in Virginia, a swing state, that's something like 65-70% African-American; I live in a predominantly black precinct. I would love, more than anything else, to have to wait 2 hours to vote.

I'm hoping that happens.

Date: 2008-10-28 12:32 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] c9.livejournal.com
I look forward to seeing the returns from VA!

Date: 2008-10-28 03:52 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bonoboboy.livejournal.com
Virginia was my last U.S.-based home, so I'm voting in Virginia this year as well. My vote was already sealed and sent off last week!

Date: 2008-10-28 03:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lifein2x3.livejournal.com
Yeah, but you guys lived in "communist country", so it doesn't count. Didn't you know? :P

Date: 2008-10-28 04:00 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bonoboboy.livejournal.com
lol - you betchya. I was pretty proud to have voted by absentee ballot in the 2006 election in Virginia as well. Seeing changes like this have started to give me some new hope.

With all the more left-leaning people moving into NOVA and helping swing the state, it makes me wonder if maybe that's what's happening in Nevada as well ... I think they've had a big increase of people moving in from California.

Date: 2008-10-28 12:59 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] 1-2-ready-go.livejournal.com
I read something today (I don't think it was on Live Journal) that spoke about how the Republicans are mismanaging their campaign, and someone quipped that possibly the Republicans are running a scientific experiment. They know they can't win this election because of W's cockups, and even if they did win, they'd be faced with years of hard times and clean-up of government (so why not just let the Democrats deal with the mess for a term, then really seek re-election in 2012?). So, they're running the worst campaign humanly possible just to see how many people will still vote for them. In spite of the wardrobe scandals, the attack ads, the lies, the inability to actually connect with people, they'll still get at least 40% of the popular vote. And forevermore, they'll know that's their floor.

Date: 2008-10-28 01:01 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] c9.livejournal.com
Oh god. I find that totally believable. I need to quit politics cold turkey!

Date: 2008-10-28 01:37 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lifein2x3.livejournal.com
I think someone is a profound consipracy theorist. :)

Date: 2008-10-28 01:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] 1-2-ready-go.livejournal.com
What about that theory is far-fetched?

Date: 2008-10-28 01:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lifein2x3.livejournal.com
It gives what's left of the modern conservative movement far too much credit for strategy or capacity to plan.

Date: 2008-10-28 02:04 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bartok.livejournal.com
That's actually probably being openly discussed within closed circles of the Republican Party. It's actually been widely acknowledged here that with the economy being in the toilet for the next few years whoever wins the NZ election will actually be getting a poisoned chalice. Long-term Labour may actually be better off not staying in power since at present they would at least keep around 35-40% of the vote (and seats in parliament) whereas were they to be around till 2011 their vote could well drop into the 20s.

The bit I'm still finding amazing about the US election is that we're a week out and it's still not showing a landslide for Obama. 40-45% of the American public actually WANT McCain/Palin to "lead" the nation. Should the Democrats "win" these people will not go away either, and will probably work as hard as possible to make him seem ineffectual and Jimmy Carter-ish.

The other thing is that "change" as we want to see it (which *is* basically socialism) would actually get much of the US voting-public veering so far to the right that they'd elect Zombie-Nixon if they could.

Date: 2008-10-28 02:05 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] c9.livejournal.com
I love Zombie-Nixon. So much better than Regular-Nixon.

Date: 2008-10-28 02:12 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bartok.livejournal.com
I suspect I've been watching too much Futurama.

Date: 2008-10-28 01:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rebelprince26.livejournal.com
i am SO excited for this new chapter in america's history. i voted and i convinced two of my friends to vote this year who've never voted in their lives.

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