Political predictions that make me sad

[c9]

Some of you may remember me saying depressing things like this well over a year ago (US) and over two years ago (Canada). I'd love to be proved wrong, but now's as good a time as any to put my predictions on the table. (since they don't mean anything, why not immortalize them?)

Canada: a Conservative majority, but a very small one. Harper only needs 28 seats, and his positives in the categories of leadership and economy will give them to him. I think Quebec will give him serious gains (ten more seats?), and Ontario a bunch more. I'm not really sure on this, it's just a gut feeling. I'm certain Harper wins either an improved minority or weak majority, but I'm calling it majority as of today.

US: Democratic gains in House and Senate (not much could change that) but a McCain presidency. I would *really* like to be proven wrong, but I just see too much poor decision making among voters (everywhere, but really in the US for some reason). McCain used to be a decent person, but he's given up and is saying *anything* to win: outright lying repeatedly on television even when confronted by The View! Karl Rove says he's gone "a bit" too far! David Frum is questioning his decisions! I think Obama will make it very close, and is really doing some very good work around voter engagement, ground work in unusual states, and his policies and approach lead me to think he'd be a great president. But my gut just tells me McCain will win. So bring lots of alcohol if you're coming to my place November 4th.

Comments

[rebelprince26.livejournal.com]

how on earth could you be undecided? mccain is the anti-christ.

[c9.livejournal.com]

I actually wish I was still undecided. That would mean that McCain hadn't blatantly thrown away all his honesty and secularism. I could maybe look past his support for banking deregulation (good week that one's having) and the war (the US is already there, so it's important to have smarts about what to do next). But I haven't seen any evidence of said smarts.

That said, I understand completely that everyone has their own issues and concerns. If Jason wants to vote for him, he's allowed. I suppose. :-)

[rebelprince26.livejournal.com]

umm, no. he's not.

[ironmanjt.livejournal.com]

Anti-Christ? Drama much?

I do find it somewhat ironic the guy supporting the pro-choice candidate is calling the pro-life candidate the "anti-Christ" though, hah. Oh, and the "Fuck America" icon only confirms one of the big problems I have with Obama supporters.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately, this is what political conversations seem to devolve into far too often, especially in the US. One person's choices (yours, Erik's) become indicative of every single other voter on one side of an issue. Ditto for a candidate. It's like nobody is allowed to think or have unusual icons or consider one issue over others.

[ironmanjt.livejournal.com]

Well, I agree with you on that point - politics in the US certainly have devolved into the point where name calling (baby killer, fascist, anti-choice, "muslim!", etc) has become the standard discourse.

It points out exactly why I *am* undecided: I'm actually looking at issues instead of devolving to who many think I am "supposed" to vote for just because I'm gay.

I will take issue with "unusual icons" though. "Fuck America" is not unusual - it's insulting.

[c9.livejournal.com]

You're welcome to that opinion of course. You can find it insulting, just as others might find it sarcastic, ironic, silly, or serious.

I'm absolutely not accusing you of this, but I do find it very common to hear that only non-insulting freedom of speech is OK. This messes up the political discourse so much. Not for things like this, which might be a really common thing to be insulted by in the US, but even less common things like opinions on abortion, sexuality, war, and more are sooner blocked/ignored than actually listened to. Sad.

[ironmanjt.livejournal.com]

Hmmmm, no, I think all speech is "ok," but what I was attempting to point out is that if someone wants to be taken seriously in a discussion about how to "fix" Americas politics after the last eight years, saying "fuck America" doesn't exactly make me believe you want to fix anything.

[c9.livejournal.com]

I understand, and that's a much better way of saying it. :)

[rebelprince26.livejournal.com]

i am allowed to say fuck america. because i'm really pissed off at it right now. but sarah palin, who apparently believes in censorship, would have it otherwise, and that's not a country i want to live in.

and the pro-choice stance is a tricky one, which is why i think women should be making that choice for themselves, not goverment stepping in to make that choice for them. aren't the republicans supposed to be about less goverment anyway?

john mccain is a blatant liar who is going to send america into world war 3. as far as i've seen, he's never once said that force should be used ONLY AS A LAST RESORT. that's terrifying.

[ironmanjt.livejournal.com]

You missed my point. I wasn't talking pro-choice v pro-life, I was just pointing out the irony of calling the pro-life candidate the anti-Christ.

I do think you should tone down the rhetoric if you want to discuss the issues, however. McCain is unlikely to "send america into world war 3" and Palin does not "apparently believe in censorship."

You're allowed to say whatever you want in this country, but saying "Fuck America" doesn't exactly lend me to believe you're committed to working to change the bad things that have happened the last eight years.

[c9.livejournal.com]

On the flip-side, McCain's willingness to put an absolute foreign policy neophyte on the ticket, one who has on multiple occasions lied to the press rather than tell the truth; his willingness to lie outright on national TV even when confronted with items he knows to be untrue; his willingness to prostrate himself at the altar of the religious right after spending a decade hating them and fighting against them; his flippancy with military power and decision-making despite his experience; and his incredible temper and refusal to back down from a fight, all tell me that he's not going to be willing or able to change things either.

[rebelprince26.livejournal.com]

eh, i've discussed the issues over and over. and i just can't see anything good coming from john mccain.

and i've read tons of articles on sarah palin trying to ban books at the library. even some from reputable news sources! can you show me something to prove me wrong? i'm willing to listen and learn.

[ironmanjt.livejournal.com]

I haven't read on the issue, nor do I have time to at the moment.

However, we're in the middle of an election, you know - that season when ALL politicians say whatever they need to to get elected. I take anything and everything they all say as half-truths.

Yes, I agree Palin has about as much experience as my second grade teacher, and that scares the hell out of me. I also think Obama has as much as my sixth grade teacher - equally as scary. I'm undecided because frankly, I think they're both terrible choices.

[rebelprince26.livejournal.com]

i know barack doesn't have a lot of elected experience, but he's been working in community service practically his whole life. he's a smart guy and he showed that by picking joe biden as his running mate. i just don't feel like the experience is an issue with him because he's so politically aware.

i feel like sarah palin's elected experience is frightening. she went from the PTA, to mayor of a town of 8,000, to governor of one of our least populated states. she doesn't know what the bush doctrine is! john mccain picked this person with no idea what's going on in the world or how to solve its problems. a month ago she was asking "what does a vice president do?" and john mccain still picked her? that seems insane and a serious question of judgment. and this is the same person we want to run our country?

[ironmanjt.livejournal.com]

John McCain did the same thing Obama did: he picked someone who took attention off his weaknesses. Yes, I think McCain pandered a bit to the female vote saying he needed a woman, but at the same time - Obama needed an old white guy to try and offset his inexperience and race issues.

I can't say being a community activist is all that different than a small town mayor. Both are local level politics which involve knowing the people you're around.

What is different, as you say, is that Obama does seem much more internationally aware. I'm just not 100% sure I agree with his worldview.

Granted, having lived abroad a good chunk of my life, visited over 90 countries, as well as the entire "axis of evil" I'm a bit jaded by all politicians on this issue. At least, if nothing else, I do believe McCain has first hand experience of evil....