Political predictions that make me sad
Sep. 15th, 2008 08:22 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
c9Some of you may remember me saying depressing things like this well over a year ago (US) and over two years ago (Canada). I'd love to be proved wrong, but now's as good a time as any to put my predictions on the table. (since they don't mean anything, why not immortalize them?)
Canada: a Conservative majority, but a very small one. Harper only needs 28 seats, and his positives in the categories of leadership and economy will give them to him. I think Quebec will give him serious gains (ten more seats?), and Ontario a bunch more. I'm not really sure on this, it's just a gut feeling. I'm certain Harper wins either an improved minority or weak majority, but I'm calling it majority as of today.
US: Democratic gains in House and Senate (not much could change that) but a McCain presidency. I would *really* like to be proven wrong, but I just see too much poor decision making among voters (everywhere, but really in the US for some reason). McCain used to be a decent person, but he's given up and is saying *anything* to win: outright lying repeatedly on television even when confronted by The View! Karl Rove says he's gone "a bit" too far! David Frum is questioning his decisions! I think Obama will make it very close, and is really doing some very good work around voter engagement, ground work in unusual states, and his policies and approach lead me to think he'd be a great president. But my gut just tells me McCain will win. So bring lots of alcohol if you're coming to my place November 4th.
Canada: a Conservative majority, but a very small one. Harper only needs 28 seats, and his positives in the categories of leadership and economy will give them to him. I think Quebec will give him serious gains (ten more seats?), and Ontario a bunch more. I'm not really sure on this, it's just a gut feeling. I'm certain Harper wins either an improved minority or weak majority, but I'm calling it majority as of today.
US: Democratic gains in House and Senate (not much could change that) but a McCain presidency. I would *really* like to be proven wrong, but I just see too much poor decision making among voters (everywhere, but really in the US for some reason). McCain used to be a decent person, but he's given up and is saying *anything* to win: outright lying repeatedly on television even when confronted by The View! Karl Rove says he's gone "a bit" too far! David Frum is questioning his decisions! I think Obama will make it very close, and is really doing some very good work around voter engagement, ground work in unusual states, and his policies and approach lead me to think he'd be a great president. But my gut just tells me McCain will win. So bring lots of alcohol if you're coming to my place November 4th.
