Profile 15: Kitchener—Conestoga

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Kitchener—Conestoga
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35038.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35038, Kitchener—Conestoga, includes both urban and rural areas, including part of the city of Kitchener. The riding surrounds the Kitchener-Waterloo and Kitchener Centre ridings and contains the townships of Wilmot, Wellesley and Woolwich.

According to the 2001 census, nine per cent of the population is of German origin. Manufacturing and the service sector are two of the major employers. Average family income is $72,893 and unemployment is 4.6 per cent.

Kitchener-Conestoga riding was created in 2004 from 62 per cent of Waterloo-Wellington and portions of Kitchener Centre and Cambridge. For historical data, I'll use Waterloo—Wellington since it provided most of the voters.

Population: 96,000

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Harold Glenn Albrecht (Conservative Party of Canada)
Len Carter (New Democratic Party)
Lynn Myers (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Kristine Yvonne Stapleton (Green Party of Canada)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	42.3%	35.4%				15.7%	6.6%
2000	43.7%		17.8%	32.9%		4.1%	1.6%
1997	44.0%		18.0%		31.1%	7.0%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-present), and PC (1979-1993).

This riding has a large rural element, but the many large towns contained in it seem to be Liberal enough to keep Lynn Myers hanging on. All of Southern Ontario is at risk for the Liberals, and the traditional conservatism of much of the area doesn't help. If the Liberals were running a better campaign, I'd call it for Myers, but the way things look today (Jan 18), I call it Tory.

www.electionprediction.org says: Conservative. Was too close to call until this week.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs third. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, vote Liberal here. Your vote could make the difference, meaning so-called strategic voting.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supporting. Egale Canada gives him an A+ on GLBT issues.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.