Profile 12: Nepean—Carleton

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Nepean—Carleton
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35052.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35052, Nepean—Carleton, contains part of the new amalgamated city of Ottawa. The riding includes the former city of Nepean, former Rideau township and former Osgoode township.

Major sources of employment include the federal government, retail trade and the service sector. Average family income is $94,830 and unemployment is 4.3 per cent. More than six per cent of the population are francophone.

Population: 109,291

In 2004, Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre defeated Liberal David Pratt, who had served two terms. Paul Martin named Pratt minister of national defence in 2003.

Liberal Beryl Gaffney won in Nepean in 1988 and 1993.

The former Grenville-Carleton riding voted Tory from 1925 to 1965. Progressive Conservative Walter Baker was elected four times in Grenville-Carleton and Nepean-Carleton, serving from 1972 until his death in November 1983. He was appointed president of the Privy Council and minister of national revenue in 1979 under Joe Clark.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Lori Gadzala (Green Party of Canada)
Michael Gaffney (Liberal Party of Canada)
Laurel Gibbons (New Democratic Party)
Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party of Canada) (incumbent)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	40.1%	45.7%				9.1%	5.2%
2000	41.2%		16.0%	37.4%		3.7%	1.7%
1997	48.8%		19.0%		26.4%	4.8%	1.0%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1988-2004), and PC (1925-1988 except for 1968-1972).

The conservative history of the area is clear. It is getting slightly more urban, which will show in the elections of 2027 or so, but for now the anger against the Liberals combined with the rural conservative sentiment pretty clearly tells us where this one is going.

www.electionprediction.org says: Conservatve, not even close.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs third, but since the Liberals have no chance, voting NDP is not taking a risk, if that's the party you prefer.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is not supportive, receiving an F from Egale Canada.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.

Comments

[primary-suspect.livejournal.com]

Yay for Cam's writeups. The NDP gained some major ground in 2004 compared to 2000.

I wasn't 100% decided before now, but I think you helped me tip the scale in one direction.

[primary-suspect.livejournal.com]

Also, I didn't realize the average income was so high, considering how rural a lot of the riding is. I guess the people in Nepean must increasing that a lot.

[primary-suspect.livejournal.com]

Heheh, ok so that is *family* income. I thought it was individual so I was thinking, wow that is huge. Still big for family but not as big as I previously thought. ;-)

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

See, you forgot to bring the funny.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Sorry, some ridings just ain't funny.

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

More and more from what I'm hearing. Gloom. Gloom and doom. Doom. Doom. Doom.

Doom.

Doom.

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

Doom.

[c9.livejournal.com]

I feel like I'm in the mines of Moria.

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

Or "Being John Malkovich". Doom doom, doom? Doom! Doom, doom (doom doom doom-doom) doom. Doom?

[c9.livejournal.com]

Well yeah, that too.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Yup. I have eight seat projection sites, and they all say 131-160 seats CPC. As long as it's a minority, I'm not worried. A majority will be annoying.