c9 | Profile 10: Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P24061.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 24061, Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, is a solid separatist seat. The economic base is manufacturing and retail trade. More than 17 per cent of the population has a university degree, while almost 14 per cent has less than a Grade 9 education. Rentals outnumber homeowners in this riding, 76 per cent to 24 per cent. The average family income is $47,892 and unemployment is 9.4 per cent.

According to the 2001 census, 76 per cent of the population have French as a mother tongue, while almost three per cent cited English, more than four per cent spoke Spanish and two per cent spoke Italian. The total immigrant population is more than 17 per cent.

Population: 103,458

In 2004, Bloc Québécois MP Bernard Bigras captured 60 per cent of the vote to defeat Liberal Christian Bolduc and win a third term.

In the former Rosemont riding, Liberal Claude-André Lachance, incumbent from Lafontaine, won in 1979 and 1980. In 1984, Progressive Conservative Suzanne Blais-Grenier was elected. She was appointed minister of environment in 1984 and minister of state for transport in 1985. She resigned from cabinet in 1985 and was expelled from the PC caucus in 1988 after she refused to withdraw allegations of kickbacks within the Quebec wing of the party. From that time, she sat as an Independent. In 1988, PC Benoît Tremblay won, but he left the PC caucus after Meech Lake failed and became a founding member of the Bloc Québécois in 1990. In 1993, Tremblay won for the BQ.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Bernard Bigras (Bloc Québécois) (incumbent)
Marc-André Gadoury (Green Party of Canada)
Suzanne Harvey (Liberal Party of Canada)
Chantal Reeves (New Democratic Party)
Michel Sauvé (Conservative Party of Canada)
Hugô St-Onge (Marijuana Party)

Recent Election Results:

	BQ	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	61.8%	22.9%	3.1%				7.7%	4.5%
2000	49.1%	33.8%		4.2%	2.9%		3.0%	6.9%
1997	47.0%	32.2%		15.6%			3.3%	1.9%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: BQ (1993-present), PC (1984-1993), and Liberal (1979-1984).

The results say it all. Bloc Québecois all the way. Note the right-wing vote is beaten by the NDP *and* OTHER in 2004, and OTHER trashes them all in 2000!

www.electionprediction.org says: Bloc. No question at all.

In this riding, vote for the party you want to get funding. Even if everybody voted only Liberal or BQ, the outcome would be obvious.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is supportive. Egale Canada gives him an A, and his party a B+.

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.