c9 | Profile 8: Thunder Bay

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35090.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35090, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, contains several native reserves and the aboriginal population is more than five per cent.

Manufacturing and grain transportation are among the main industries in the riding. Average family income is $64,415 and unemployment is 9.1 per cent.

In 2004, Liberal Ken Boshcoff defeated New Democrat John Rafferty and Conservative David Leskowski.

Thunder Bay-Atikokan and its predecessor riding of Fort William voted Liberal from 1935 to 1980. The last elected Tory was R.J. Manion, who won in 1925, 1926 and 1930. Liberal Paul McRae held the seat from 1972 (when it was Fort William) to 1984 (when it was Thunder Bay-Atikokan).

In 1984 and 1988, New Democrat Iain Angus was elected. Liberal Stan Dromisky served three terms between 1993 and 2004.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Russ Aegard (Green Party of Canada)
Ken Boshcoff (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
David Leskowski (Conservative Party of Canada)
Doug MacKay (Marijuana Party)
John Rafferty (New Democratic Party)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	39.4%	26.3%				29.7%	4.6%
2000	37.0%		11.8%	29.3%		19.5%	2.5%
1997	42.7%		16.3%		16.8%	24.2%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-present), NDP (1984-1993), and Liberal (1935-1984).

Likely due to union strength, the NDP are first or second in this riding. The Green, NDP, Liberal and Conservative candidates from 2004 are all running again, so experience isn't much of a factor. With Liberal support dropping in Ontario, and a strong NDP showing, this is a real three-way horse race.

www.electionprediction.org says: Liberal, but close. I wouldn't be surprised to have them change this to "Too close to call" soon.

In this riding, the NDP will likely come in second. Voting for them could give them the riding, but voting Liberal could give them the riding. Vote with your heart, strategically approaching this one is pointless unless local polls show a strong bias.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is not very supportive, with C from Egale Canada.

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.