c9 | Profile 7: Prince Edward

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Prince Edward—Hastings
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35073.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35073, Prince Edward—Hastings, is a pretty conservative (and Conservative) place. Major industries are manufacturing and retail trade with some agriculture. Average family income is $56,433 and unemployment is 7.3 per cent.

Population: 109,407

In 2004, Conservative Daryl Kramp defeated Liberal Bruce Knutson by 2,556 votes. Liberal Lyle Vanclief was the MP from 1988 until 2004. He was minister of agriculture from 1997 until December 2003.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Tim Hickey (Independent)
Daryl Kramp (Conservative Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Michael McMahon (New Democratic Party)
Joseph Sahadat (Green Party of Canada)
Bob Vaughan (Liberal Party of Canada)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	37.6%	42.4%				15.2%	4.9%
2000	50.5%		20.3%	24.4%		4.8%
1997	51.6%		21.4%		21.2%	5.8%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1988-2004), PC (1968-1988).

Looking at the numbers, and looking at the map, you already know the story on this riding. Lots of rural, lots of industry, and the right-wing vote has been >40% for three straight elections. The low NDP vote says something too, though there's a nice uptick in 2004. Anger against the Lberals along the 401 is quite palpable, so this riding is pretty much guaranteed to stay Conservative -- which is typical, historically. The nineties were unusual.

www.electionprediction.org says: Conservative, not very close.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs third. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote Liberal here. But to be honest, the Liberals have little chance here, so a principled vote for the NDP might be just as satisfying (that is, hardly at all).

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very negative, and received an F from Egale Canada. He's only had two votes to show his GLBT stance, but he took 'em.

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.