Profile 4: Vancouver Centre

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding:Vancouver Centre
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P59029.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 59029, Vancouver Centre, is Vancouver's downtown business core. The 2001 census counted 105,998 residents, of whom more than 32 per cent were immigrants. Renters outnumbered homeowners nearly 3 to 1.

Vancouver Centre serves as the headquarters for many of B.C.'s largest companies and government-service providers. Almost 36 per cent of the people here hold university degrees, the fourth highest percentage among Canadian ridings. The average family income was $75,756 in 2001 and unemployment was 7.3 per cent.

Liberal Hedy Fry kept her seat in 2004, defeating New Democrat Kennedy Stewart by 4,230 votes.

This was Liberal territory in the 1960s and 70s, when it was held by Ron Basford and Art Phillips. It turned Tory in 1980 with the election of Pat Carney, who served in Brian Mulroney's cabinet.

In 1988, Vancouver Centre voters elected Tory Kim Campbell. Campbell was Canada's first female justice minister and defence minister. After Mulroney resigned, she became the country's first female prime minister in June 1993. By November she and her party were out of office. Campbell lost in her riding to Fry.

Fry's main opponents in 1997 and 2000 were Reform/Canadian Alliance challengers. Both times she won by about 9,300 votes.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Heathcliff Dionysus Campbell (Marijuana Party)
John Clarke (Libertarian Party of Canada)
Jared Evans (Green Party of Canada)
Tony Fogarassy (Conservative Party of Canada)
Hedy Fry (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Joe Pal (Christian Heritage Party of Canada)
Svend Robinson (New Democratic Party)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	40.3%	19.2%				32.3%	8.2%
2000	42.3%		11.8%	26.1%		12.0%	7.7%
1997	40.8%		9.2%		22.6%	20.9%	6.4%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-present), PC (1980-1993), Liberal (1962-1980).

The NDP is running former superstar Svend Robinson, and the downtown urban riding traditionally has strong NDP support. Some see Robinson as non-local candidate (even though he has lived in the riding regularly and spent much time there), and countering that some see Hedy Fry as an MP who has spent enough time, and maybe is done. Only Hedy or Svend will win, and both are truly strong representatives for the riding.

www.electionprediction.org says: Too close to call. I agree. Nail-biting excitement!

In this riding, the Liberals typically come first, and the NDP second. The Conservatives are not a factor here, so you should vote your heart in a Liberal-NDP decision.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supportive, and Svend introduced equal marriage and equal rights legislation over and over since the early 80s.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.

Comments

[joecdn.livejournal.com]

I think Hedy's going to win.

Most people think she's done a great job for the riding, and Svend is viewed by many to be trying to capitalize on the gay vote, in a situation when he'd normally not have a chance in hell of being re-elected.

Hedy is EXTREMELY gay friendly. She's always at Pride, always out at the bars (I talked to her at the Odyssey on NYE), very involved in the community.

Her float at the Pride parade last year was ENORMOUS!!!

[saviolo.livejournal.com]

Heh, I'd love to see a write-up of my riding, Cam. I happen to be in one of the most hotly contested and watched ridings in Canada... Trinity-Spadina, which is Olivia Chow's riding.

My party affiliation is pretty clear given the signs hanging in the windows. Olivia Chow has lost this riding to Liberal Tony Ianno for two straight elections, but she only lost by about 800 votes last time... probably a case of strategic voting gone wrong in this riding... though that's a pretty subjective opinion on my part ;)

Remember when we used to have election parties and collect signs from all the political parties to decorate your basement?

-Daniel

[canuckboy.livejournal.com]

I call this riding the Battle of the FAG vs. the HAG... I'm awful, aren't I?

[nihilicious.livejournal.com]

I love this riding. Either way, a crazy person is going to win!