Profile 2: Fredericton

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Fredericton
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P13003.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 13003, Fredericton, has 82,782 residents (2001 census). About eight per cent listed French as their mother tongue. About five per cent are immigrants.

Government is the riding's biggest employer. Nearly 17 per cent of residents have a university degree, while 8.6 per cent are unemployed. The average family income is $61,324.

Liberal incumbent Andy Scott won again in 2004. Scott caused a political upset in this riding in 1993. He is now minister of Indian affairs and northern development. Since 1957, this had been solid Tory country, held by just three MPs: Chester MacRae (1957-72), Robert Howie (1972-88), and Bud Bird (1988-93). Scott unseated Bird by more than 8,000 votes in the 1993 election. Scott hung on to power in a closer race in 1997, and in 2000 earned a third term by defeating Tory Raj Venugopal by 3,256 votes.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
David Raymond Amos (Independent)
John Carty (New Democratic Party)
Philip Duchastel (Green Party of Canada)
Pat Lynch (Conservative Party of Canada)
Andy Scott (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	46.8%	33.5%				17.4%	2.4%
2000	38.6%		29.7%	24.0%		7.0%	0.6%
1997	34.1%		30.2%		21.8%	13.1%	0.9%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-1997), PC (1957-1993).

The NDP and Liberal candidates are the same as in 2004. For the Liberals it's a no-brainer, as Andy Scott is quite popular. Between Cabinet popularity and the benefits he's brought Fredericton, he's only been getting more popular. Check out the total conservative vote in 2000 (PC+CA) compared to the CPC in 2004! Fredericton is very conservative though, in its voters. The students go home to vote usually, so anger against the Liberals could bubble up and cause a problem. If it was just a two-way race, Scott would still win. But the NDP vote was high last time, and the candidate is back. Some people think that strategic voting is less likely this time, since more people understand the problems with it. I'd say it all depends on the polls the weekend before election day. If a Tory victory is likely, the NDP support will drop, and Andy will win. If a Liberal victory is likely, the NDP will do better, and the Tory just might squeak in. I'd bet a nickel on Andy one more time.

www.electionprediction.org says: Too close to call!

In this riding, the Liberal typically wins. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote Liberal here. The Tories will almost assuredly be second.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is supportive. Bizarrely, he was attacked (bashed, if you will) and sent to hospital in 2003 over the Liberal government's support for equal marriage.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.

Comments

[bartok.livejournal.com]

penis

[c9.livejournal.com]

Very astute!

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

John Carty is the manager of the Fredericton SPCA animal shelter. For those of you swayed by cute animals, this ought to be enough to convince you to vote for him. :-)

Seriously though, I appreciate the write-up. Unfortunately, you've now made me nervous about voting NDP, damn you! I nearly succumbed to SVS (strategic voting syndrome) last time, I hadn't considered it as pressing an issue this time.

Going solely by the "number-of-signs" metric (a poor metirc, I know), the NDP has a lot of grassroots support here, which makes sense when you consider the large-ish academic community. The new Conservative candidate is kind of scary looking, and I've only seen one campaign sign for him anywhere in town (albeit, an actual billboard in a high-traffic area, whereas the NDP signs are mostly lawn signs and the Liberal signs are mostly of the large cardboard variety).

[c9.livejournal.com]

Basically, you have to decide first whether you're voting for a candidate or against a candidate. That makes the next decision (the actual vote) far easier.

Andy has a good shot regardless of what you do.

[(Anonymous)]

wtf, fuck ndp

[c9.livejournal.com]

Now *that's* depth.

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

How very astute!