Political predictions that make me sad

Some of you may remember me saying depressing things like this well over a year ago (US) and over two years ago (Canada). I'd love to be proved wrong, but now's as good a time as any to put my predictions on the table. (since they don't mean anything, why not immortalize them?)

Canada: a Conservative majority, but a very small one. Harper only needs 28 seats, and his positives in the categories of leadership and economy will give them to him. I think Quebec will give him serious gains (ten more seats?), and Ontario a bunch more. I'm not really sure on this, it's just a gut feeling. I'm certain Harper wins either an improved minority or weak majority, but I'm calling it majority as of today.

US: Democratic gains in House and Senate (not much could change that) but a McCain presidency. I would *really* like to be proven wrong, but I just see too much poor decision making among voters (everywhere, but really in the US for some reason). McCain used to be a decent person, but he's given up and is saying *anything* to win: outright lying repeatedly on television even when confronted by The View! Karl Rove says he's gone "a bit" too far! David Frum is questioning his decisions! I think Obama will make it very close, and is really doing some very good work around voter engagement, ground work in unusual states, and his policies and approach lead me to think he'd be a great president. But my gut just tells me McCain will win. So bring lots of alcohol if you're coming to my place November 4th.

Orlandorrific

I'm in Orlando, Florida at this moment, at the Gaylord Palms Resort and Convention Center. I'm here to learn a new course I'll be teaching soon. This has been a whirlwind (channeling Sean Hayes: "worldwind") trip. I flew down yesterday, and I fly back tomorrow morning. Fun but not without its headaches.

Some random notes:

- no lounge at yow: because I was flying Ottawa to DC to Orlando, I had to stay in the US departures area at MacDonald-Cartier Ottawa International Airport. I did learn that I could use my boarding pass to enter the domestic/international departure secure area, then visit the Maple Leaf Lounge for my free snacks and alcohol and internet, and then go back out and through customs. To avoid any panic or customs trouble I went straight to the US departure area, and just sat bored.

- all three campaign planes: parked on the tarmac at Ottawa airport were the Conservatives' A320, the NDP's A320, and the Liberals' 737. The Tory plane sat alone, away from the other two. No comment.

- running into junior high friend: I spotted someone who looked kinda cute boarding my flight to DC, but didn't recognize him or anything. When he reached me, he said my full name and then told me his -- it was someone a few years behind me in junior high, who now works at Transport Canada. Small world!

- weird bus thing at iad: Dulles airport in DC has multiple terminals, and to get between them you take a bus. But the bus is also describeable as a house on wheels -- it's huge! Monster! Here's a picture, and here's the inside. They're as big as my house.

- weirdos on flight taking seats to be together: some... let's say *interesting characters* boarded my next flight, in a group, and rather than sit in their assigned seats they just grabbed the next group of seats together they spotted. They not only basically told the guy on the aisle to move in so they could sit down, but when the actual seat owner showed up they pointed to another seat further in front and told her to go sit over there. Politely, in a roughneck "just go do it" kind of way.

- gigantic hotel / convention ctr: The resort I'm staying at is quite nice -- very beautiful, lots of restaurants, huge gardens with fish and alligators in the centre courtyard. Here's a map. It took me a few minutes to register the convention centre (hint: it looks like the Sun does in those to-scale solar system maps) because the hotel is so big that I didn't even consider the idea there might be another bigger thing nearby. This hotel is so big I feel like I should be researching where the gay neighbourhood is.

- dinner on boat: last night I ate dinner on a boat. That is inside a pond. That is inside the hotel. yes, the hotel is big.

- geckos: once outside (note: not in the middle of that map, but out by the pools) there are little tiny gekos everywhere! Very fast. (well, all but one that I spotted. Poor guy.) Today at the pool I also spotted some form of lizard that I didn't recognize (because I don't know SFA about lizards) but it was not a gecko. I walked right up to it and it froze to hope I wouldn't spot it sitting out in the open away from all camouflage. Not the brightest lizard in the class of '08.

Now I'm off to bed. Hooray for early wake-up calls and early flights! Ugh.