c9 | Profile 17: Ottawa West

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Ottawa West—Nepean
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35066.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35066, Ottawa West—Nepean, is almost equally split between rentals and owned. The federal government is the largest employer. Average family income is $76,580 and unemployment is 6.8 per cent. More than 28 per cent of residents are immigrants with significant Italian and Chinese communities.

Population: 103,870

In 2004, Liberal Marlene Catterall defeated Conservative Sean Casey by 1,380 votes. She was first elected in 1988.

Ottawa West and Ottawa West-Nepean voted Liberal from 1935 to 1968. Neighbouring Carleton riding elected only Conservatives from 1867 to 1962. From 1968 to 1988, the riding swung between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates: (no incumbent)
Neil Adair (Green Party of Canada)
John Baird (Conservative Party of Canada)
Randy Bens (Canadian Action Party)
Lee Farnworth (Liberal Party of Canada)
John Pacheco (Independent)
Marlene Rivier (New Democratic Party)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	41.2%	39.4%				13.0%	5.8%
2000	43.3%		20.1%	28.3%		5.2%	3.0%
1997	54.0%		15.5%		21.2%	7.6%	1.7%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1988-present), alternating PC and Liberal (1972-1988), and Liberal (1935-1972).

The strong Tory vote in 2004, with anger against the Liberals, says this riding is going Blue. Even if Catterall stayed she'd lose, and the no-namers fighting this out means it's party leader versus party leader. This is a Conservative win.

www.electionprediction.org says: Too close to call. I disagree, but we'll see on Monday.

In this riding, the NDP typically run third. If you're scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote Liberal here.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. There is no incumbent in this riding, so party policy is all that can help. Ask your candidates their opinion of equality in marriage rights!

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.