c9 | Profile 14: Tobique

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Tobique—Mactaquac
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/13010.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 13010, Tobique—Mactaquac, includes

leapfish's Mom. He says gun control is a big issue, and that the NDP candidate has a pond.

The 2001 census counted 70,105 residents. About one-sixth are francophones; only three per cent are immigrants. Manufacturing is the biggest employer here. The average family income is $48,650, and unemployment is 11.9 per cent.

Population: 70,105

In 2004, Liberal Andy Savoy held on to the office he gained here in 2000, when he unseated incumbent Tory Gilles Bernier by just 147 votes. Bernier, in turn, had knocked off Liberal MP Pierrette Ringuette-Maltais in 1993.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Mike Allen (Conservative Party of Canada)
Robert Bérubé Jr. (Green Party of Canada)
Alice Finnamore (New Democratic Party)
Andy Savoy (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	48.2%	39.6%				8.5%	3.7%
2000	33.6%		33.1%	29.5%		3.7%
1997	30.2%		35.9%		27.7%	6.2%

Prior to 1997, the riding did not exist, but the area has a PC / Liberal 60/40 split history, roughly.

January 10th: Andy is very popular, but the strong conservative vote in recent years makes it tricky to predict. I say "I don't know."
January 18t: I think Andy's going to go. The COnservative surge will eat many ridings like this one.

www.electionprediction.org says: Liberal, but I'd actually call it too close to call.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs last, so vote Liberal if you're worried about the Conservatives. It will be close.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is not supportive. He got a D from Egale Canada. Too many Liberals like that, annoyingly.

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.