Profile 9: Skeena—Bulkley Valley

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P59025.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 59025, Skeena—Bulkley Valley, is British Columbia's biggest riding, occupying the northwest quarter of the province. It includes the Queen Charlotte Islands, Smithers, Terrace, Thornhill, Kitimat and the port city of Prince Rupert, as well as the northern part of the Central Coast Regional District and the western part of the Bulkley-Nechako Regional District.

According to the 2001 census, immigrants make up nearly 12 per cent of this riding's residents, and aboriginal people about 20 per cent. The economy is based on forestry, mining and fishing. Unemployment was 15.6 per cent in 2001. The average family earned $60,366 per year.

Population: 99,474

New Democrat Nathan Cullen won this riding in 2004 by 1,272 votes over Conservative incumbent Andy Burton.

For nearly four decades, Skeena was dominated by two members of the NDP: Frank Howard (from 1957-74) and Jim Fulton (from 1979-93). Between their reigns, Liberal Iona Campagnola served a single term.

In 1993, voters turned right. Reformer Michael Scott took the riding by fairly comfortable margins in 1993 and 1997. In 2000, the Canadian Alliance's Burton outpolled Liberal Rhoda Witherly by 4,000 votes.

According to the 2001 census, more than 57 per cent of residents rent their dwellings. Almost 90 per cent of the population cite English as their mother tongue. The immigrant population is just over nine per cent. Almost 27 per cent of the population have university degrees. The average family income is $68,901 and the unemployment rate is 7.6 per cent.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Phil Brienesse (Green Party of Canada)
Nathan Cullen (New Democratic Party) (incumbent)
Mike Scott (Conservative Party of Canada)
Gordon Stamp-Vincent (Liberal Party of Canada)
Rod Taylor (Christian Heritage Party of Canada)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	21.6%	33.7%				37.1%	7.6%
2000	29.1%		3.2%	42.7%		21.0%	4.0%
1997	20.3%		3.5%		42.4%	31.2%	2.7%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Conservative/CA/Reform (1993-2004), NDP (1957-1993 with one Liberal term from 1974-1979).

The NDP incumbent is running again, and so is the Christian Heritage Party candidate. Wow, what a volatile riding! This is exciting. A perfect example of where so-called strategic voting can hurt the left. With the NDP such a strong player in this riding, they deserve every leftie's vote. The Liberals came in third last time, and haven't held the seat for decades. Because the Tory candidate is new, I call this an NDP win, unless anger against the Liberals is super-strong in the region. Could very well be.

www.electionprediction.org says: Too close to call! The comments from people on the site make it clear this is an NDP-Conservative race. The Liberals are NOT in the game at all.

In this riding, the NDP typically wins. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote NDP here. The Conservatives will almost assuredly be second.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supportive.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.

Comments

[bcboi.livejournal.com]

Despite the fact he's not the incumbent, CPC candidate Mike Scott is posting campaign signs that say, "re-elect Mike Scott". It's been the subject of debate...and his argument is that he previously served 7 years (prior to the real incumbent) in Parliament, therefore is entitled to use the term 're-elect'.

fool.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Fascinating, in that completely pointless way that elections seem to specialize in. :)