Profile 6: Halifax

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Halifax
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P12004.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 12004, Halifax, has a diverse mix of industries. As the province's capital, one of its largest employers is the provincial government. It is also the Atlantic regional headquarters for many national financial institutions. The service industry is important, as are health, social and educational services.

According to the 2001 census, more than 57 per cent of residents rent their dwellings. Almost 90 per cent of the population cite English as their mother tongue. The immigrant population is just over nine per cent. Almost 27 per cent of the population have university degrees. The average family income is $68,901 and the unemployment rate is 7.6 per cent.

Population: 89,019

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Andrew House (Conservative Party of Canada)
Martin MacKinnon (Liberal Party of Canada)
Alexa McDonough (New Democratic Party) (incumbent)
Tony Seed (Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada)
Nick Wright (Green Party of Canada)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	39.1%	14.6%				41.5%	4.7%
2000	33.0%		17.7%	5.7%		40.4%	3.2%
1997	21.6%		23.3%		5.4%	49.0%	0.6%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1988-1997), PC (1984-1988), Liberal (1980-1984), and PC (1968-1980).

Only the NDP candidate is the same as in 2004. The Liberals came close last time, but with a new unknown candidate Alexa will likely win again. She still has a lot of heft from being NDP leader prior to Jack Layton, and she mops the floor with anyone and everyone at debates. The NDP are going to win this one unless there's a large shift in the vote. Urban Halifax is pretty progressive, so don't look for a surprise here.

www.electionprediction.org says: NDP, probably not very close at all.

In this riding, the NDP typically wins. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote NDP here. The Liberals will almost assuredly be second.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supportive. (I met her.)


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.