Profile 5: Western Arctic

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Western Arctic
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P61001.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 61001, Western Arctic, is Canada's second-largest riding (I'm almost sure). The Western Arctic riding is formed from Canada's vast Northwest Territories, which stretch from the mountainous Yukon border to the Barrens abutting Nunavut, and from the bleak High Arctic to the forested 60th parallel.

According to the 2001 census, the population here is 37,360. At least one-third live in the capital and major service centre, Yellowknife. Other significant communities include the transport depot of Hay River, the oil-and-gas exploration hub of Inuvik and Fort Smith, where Wood Buffalo National Park is headquartered. About half of the N.W.T.'s population is aboriginal.

Economically, the N.W.T. is on fire. North of Yellowknife, two diamond mines produce more than $1 billion in precious gems annually, while to the west, communities are readying themselves to profit from the proposed Mackenzie Valley gas pipeline. Still, in isolated (and predominantly aboriginal) villages, jobs can be scarce and living conditions grim. Territory-wide, average family income is $75,102, according to the 2001 census. Unemployment was 9.5 per cent.

Since 1988, this seat has been held by Liberal Ethel Blondin-Andrew. Now the minister of state for northern development, Blondin-Andrew first attained office by unseating three-term Tory MP Dave Nickerson. Her victories were comfortable until 2004, when she defeated New Democrat Dennis Bevington by just 53 votes.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Alexandre Beaudin (Green Party of Canada)
Dennis Bevington (New Democratic Party)
Ethel Blondin-Andrew (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Richard Edjericon (Conservative Party of Canada)
Jan H. van der Veen (Independent)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	39.4%	17.2%				39.1%	4.3%
2000	45.6%		10.0%	17.7%		26.7%
1997	41.6%		12.6%		14.7%	19.3%	11.7%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1988-present), PC (1979-1988),and NDP (1972-1979).

The NDP is running their strong candidate again, which makes sense as he lost by only 53 votes in 2004. He also ran in the 2000 election, so his experience becomes a factor in a game where the incumbent almost always has that upper hand. A sense that Blondin-Andrew has been there a long time, combined with a visit to the north by Jack Layton at Winter Solstice, tells me this riding is going to swing NDP again. The strong resource-based and rural aspect will turn this riding Tory down the road, as more money filters into the electorate, but for now it's ripe for a change. One wrinkle: the scare she got last time might make the incumbent work extra hard this time around -- might get a bounce and keep the riding. One other factor: there are two Dene (First Nation) candidates this time, for the Tories and the Liberals. The vote split on wanting a Dene MP might allow the non-Dene NDP candidate an opportunity to make up any vote loss too.

www.electionprediction.org says: Too close to call! The comments from people on the site make it clear this is an NDP-Liberal race. The Conservatives are NOT in the game at all.

In this riding, the Liberal typically wins. However, the Conservatives are very low here and are not a factor, so voting your heart in an NDP-Liberal choice is probably just fine.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is supportive, and has supported other GLBT equality legislation.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.