c9 | Profile 3: Kitchener—Waterloo (Reply)

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Kitchener—Waterloo
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35039.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35039, Kitchener—Waterloo, includes the city of Waterloo and part of the city of Kitchener.

The city of Waterloo makes up about three-quarters of the riding. Waterloo's economic activities include manufacturing, financial and insurance sectors as well as retail trade. It has a strong technology sector and is home to University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University and a campus of Conestoga College.

Average family income is $84,077 and unemployment is 5.5 per cent.

Population: 113,000

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Julian Ichim (Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada)
Edwin Laryea (New Democratic Party)
Ajmer Mandur (Conservative Party of Canada)
Pauline Richards (Green Party of Canada)
Andrew Telegdi (Liberal Party of Canada) (Incumbent)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	48.1%	29.5%				15.9%	6.5%
2000	50.3%		16.0%	23.0%		8.2%	2.5%
1997	47.7%		22.1%		20.0%	9.0%	1.3%

Prior to 1997, this riding did not exist in its present form. But the area's MP was: Liberal (1993-present), PC (1979-1993), and NDP (1964-1979).

NDP, Green, and Liberal candidates same as 2004. Not the Conservative, which I think lowers their chances. The NDP are not going to win this one unless there's a large shift in the vote. The academic and young population might make that happen, but the heavy religion in the area suggests it won't happen.

www.electionprediction.org says: Liberal, but may be close.

In this riding, the NDP typically runs third. If you are scared to give an inch to the Conservatives anywhere, then vote Liberal here. If you prefer to strengthen the NDP, even in the unlikely event you end up with a Conservative MP, then vote NDP here.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supportive. (http://www.equal-marriage.ca/resource.php?id=199)

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.