I Was Wrong, And So Are You

[c9]

In The Atlantic, "a libertarian economist retracts a swipe at the left—after discovering that our political leanings leave us more biased than we think." -- http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/i-was-wrong-and-so-are-you/8713/

BACK IN JUNE 2010, I published a Wall Street Journal op-ed arguing that the American left was unenlightened, by and large, as to economic matters. Responding to a set of survey questions that tested people’s real-world understanding of basic economic principles, self-identified progressives and liberals did much worse than conservatives and libertarians, I reported. To sharpen the ax, The Journal titled the piece “Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?”—the implication being that people on the left were not.

Turns out, they were wrong. confirmation bias made them believe something that made sense.

But one year later, in May 2011, Buturovic and I published a new scholarly article reporting on a new survey. It turned out that I needed to retract the conclusions I’d trumpeted in The Wall Street Journal. The new results invalidated our original result: under the right circumstances, conservatives and libertarians were as likely as anyone on the left to give wrong answers to economic questions. The proper inference from our work is not that one group is more enlightened, or less. It’s that “myside bias”—the tendency to judge a statement according to how conveniently it fits with one’s settled position—is pervasive among all of America’s political groups. The bias is seen in the data, and in my actions.

I tweeted:

• You're more likely to disagree with facts that don't match your political leanings. We all do it. See how you react to these examples: (1/6)
• Minimum wage laws increase unemployment. Rent control leads to housing shortages. Restricting housing develpmt make housing less affordable.
• Drug prohibition does reduce access to drugs. A $ means more to poor than rich person. Abortion prhbtion would up # of illegal abortions.
• Which tweet contains an error? (and I don't mean spelling. Sorry about the compression of some words).
• Surprise: all tweets in this sequence are true. There's no error. But your political leanings might have led you to find one anyway.
• Check out this link to learn more: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/i-was-wrong-and-so-are-you/8713/ (6/6)

...as it turns out I edited too fast and did make a mistake, which is corrected above. I originally said drug prohibition doesn't reduce access to drugs. Oops!

Check out the article and rethink your assumptions!

Comments

[thespos]

Interesting.

I don't disagree that I am biased, but I think these are the easy ones. I think the more difficult lines come from things that are intangible or not as easy to prove (or disprove).

[c9.livejournal.com]

Absolutely. They chose them to be simple to know the truth, yet likely to trigger political bias. The idea is that we have to be aware of this brain failure so that when we see a complex situation we don't automatically go with just one side's explanation.

[thespos]

I do wonder if this varies by country, though. I do not trust the other side here. If I hear something compelling, I will verify -- but I don't easily accept the other side's position on anything because they have a history of distortion and lying outright. I do consider myself more open-minded than most because I will take the time to verify, though.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Oh yeah, don't trust the person, trust the data. Evidence-based decision-making, period. Too rare.