c9 | Profile 18: Trinity—Spadina (Reply)

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Trinity—Spadina
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35095.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35095, Trinity—Spadina, contains some of downtown Toronto's most famous landmarks, including the CN Tower, the Rogers Centre, the bank towers, Ontario Place and the Royal Ontario Museum.

Chinatown, Little Italy, Portugal Village, Kensington market, the Annex, the University of Toronto and the Toronto Islands are also in the riding. The riding contains the financial district, many commercial establishments, small businesses and the city's garment district.

According to the 2001 census, the immigrant population is 44 per cent, with a diverse mix of backgrounds. There are large Chinese and Portugese communities. Almost 45 per cent listed a language other than English or French as their mother tongue. Only 35 per cent of residents own their homes. The average family income is $81,415 and unemployment is 6.7 per cent.

In 2004, Tony Ianno defeated New Democrat Olivia Chow by 805 votes to win a fourth term of office. Chow, city councillor and wife of NDP leader Jack Layton, also ran against Ianno and lost in 1997.

Liberal Paul Hellyer won a December 1958 byelection in Trinity riding and was MP until he resigned in 1971 and changed party affiliation. Hellyer was defeated by Pierre Trudeau for the Liberal leadership in 1968. In 1972, he was narrowly re-elected as Trinity's MP, this time as a PC. He ran for leadership of the Conservatives in 1976 and lost. Liberal Aideen Nicholson was elected in Trinity in 1974, 1979, 1980 and 1984.

In Spadina, Liberal Peter Stollery was elected four times from 1972 through 1980. He was appointed to the Senate in 1981, when Pierre Trudeau wanted to open the seat to let his principal secretary, Jim Coutts, run. Coutts lost the 1981 byelection to New Democrat Dan Heap, an Anglican minister and city alderman. Heap won the 1984 election in Spadina and the 1988 election in the newly created Trinity-Spadina.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Thom Chapman (Green Party of Canada)
Olivia Chow (New Democratic Party)
Sam Goldstein (Conservative Party of Canada)
Asif Hossain (Progressive Canadian Party)
Tony Ianno (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Nick Lin (Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada)
John Riddell (Canadian Action Party)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	43.6%	8.6%				42.0%	5.6%
2000	47.6%		5.5%	5.3%		38.0%	3.5%
1997	45.3%		6.9%		4.1%	40.8%	2.8%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1935-present, except for every fifth election or so. More detial here if you're curious: http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/riding/202/)

A very tight and interesting race. The NDP have come close for several years, which is common in urban ridings. Olivia Chow, Jack Layton's wife, is running again, for the third time. She skipped 2000, but ran in 2000 and 2004. Last time was so close that anger against the Liberals and a Tory surge should put her over the top. She (and her husband) have worked hard for two decades on TO city council and would do great work as MPs, so I hope she wins.

www.electionprediction.org says: ~~Too close to call.~~ Just changed yesterday to NDP.

In this riding, the NDP typically comes a very close second. Your vote, if you're a progressive voter, could make the difference! DO NOT be afraid of the Tories here, they can't touch this riding, and your vote will not stop them or aid them.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supportive, Egale Canada gave him an A, despite the Liberals only getting a B.

Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.