Profile 16: Toronto—Danforth

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Toronto—Danforth
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P35094.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 35094, Toronto—Danforth, is predominantly residential, with a large blue-collar population.

There are only slightly more owned dwellings than rentals, 52 per cent to 48 per cent. The area has some commercial and light industry and major redevelopment is planned along the waterfront. Average family income is $67,551 and unemployment is 6.7 per cent.

According to the 2001 census, the immigrant population is more than 41 per cent. Almost 17 per cent listed Chinese as their ethnic origin and seven per cent are Greek. Over 41 per cent gave a language other than English or French as their mother tongue.

In 2004, NDP Leader Jack Layton defeated incumbent Liberal Dennis Mills by 2,395 votes. Layton became the NDP leader in January 2003. Mills served four terms in Broadview-Greenwood and Toronto-Danforth. Green Party Leader Jim Harris also ran in this riding in 2004.

Bob Rae, running for the NDP, was elected here in an October 1978 byelection and again in 1979 and 1980. Rae resigned in 1982, after winning the Ontario NDP leadership, and went on to become premier of Ontario.

New Democrat Lynn McDonald defeated Independent Peter Worthington in an October 1982 byelection and again in the 1984 election. Worthington, a Toronto Sun columnist, represented the Conservatives in 1984.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Kren Clausen (Conservative Party of Canada)
Deborah Coyne (Liberal Party of Canada)
Al Hart (Green Party of Canada)
Jack Layton (New Democratic Party) (incumbent)
Marcell Rodden (Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada)

Recent Election Results:

	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	41.3%	6.2%				46.3%	6.1%
2000	51.9%		8.0%	7.7%		27.7%	4.7%
1997	49.8%		7.6%		7.7%	32.8%	2.2%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal (1988-2004), NDP (1965-1988).

Not much question here -- this is Jack Layton's riding. He won by over 2300 votes last time, and NDP support is very strong historically in this riding. Dennis Mills' popularity didn't overcome the "party leader" boost that Jack got. This time Pierre Trudeau's ex Deborah Coyne is running, but it's not going anywhere. It's a very interesting riding, but not a very interesting race. :)

www.electionprediction.org says: NDP, no question.

In this riding, the NDP typically wins. If you're worried about the Conservatives, they are not a danger in this riding, so you should vote NDP if that's your wish.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is incredibly supportive. I suspect Egale Canada would give him an A+++ if they could on this issue. On trans issues maybe just an A.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.