The Long Emergency may have begun.

[c9]

What is not being discussed rationally by the mainstream media is Katrina’s impact on energy production. They don’t dare. By my calculations and those of oil energy expert Jan Lundberg, the United States has just lost between 20% and 25% of its energy supply. My projection is that it’s not coming back — at least not most of it.

From The Wilderness article

I hate feeling like I'm crying wolf, but yikes.

Comments

[purplemartini.livejournal.com]

When my Father, who works in the oil industry, is worried it's a pretty good sign that we all should be worried. Even if they manage to rebuild the refineries, or for that matter build new ones, that is still going to take a long long time. We are looking at a very cold winter with rising heating costs. This hurricane has global implications.

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

Oy, I hope they bump up salaries soon. I can't afford to continue paying down debt and living. It's making me sick to my stomach.

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

...but hopefully not too sick. I can't afford ulcer medication.

[thespos]

Maybe we could get wind-up cars. :-)

[skaughty.livejournal.com]

very scary prospects. part of me wants to remain delusional and have faith that everything will be a-okay, but my gut paired with logical reasoning lets me invest a little too much in that article for my liking.

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

Believe it or not, I finally read most of an article you posted. I know, I know, you're probably rubbing your eyes right now, wondering if what you just read is true. It is.

I'd like to point out that there are many people who have been yelling that the sky is falling for a very long time now. Not that they just be totally discounted, or even the people trying to carry on as if everything is honky dory a-ok normal. In my usual approach, I see something in the middle of the road.

The article says, "Oh my fucking God, everything is over. Repent. Repent." Okay, that's a bit of a precis. There is an attempt to thrust an immediate pandemonium onto everyone. And I applaud that effort, because sooner or later, yeah, it's true - we're clusterfucked once the last drop of oil is drilled from the ground, if we don't change.

But here is the thing. Investors aren't all stupid, just the ones who continue to dump all of their resources into oil. There are already means in which to live without oil, just right now it's totally underdeveloped, because nobody is paying attention to it. No one in my lifetime has woken up to a 25% increase in pump prices. Well, it's here, and people are gripped by the balls, and finally taking notice.

I believe that we're going to see a renewed focus on exploring alternative energies. A real, honest one. Actual R&D money coming not in ten of thousand of dollars, but millions. Perhaps an entire research institute to new fuels, even.

For example, we can make biodiesel already, but it's not feasible for distribution, because there are no markets, no investments, no education. If venture capitalists can no longer invest in oil, they're not going to say, "Well, fuck, I have nowhere to invest my money. I may as well put it under my mattress." I think some of that will go to making biodiesel more widespread.

Another thing to consider is want. I know that we want to travel. Just because oil is harder to find, that desire doesn't go away, and once fewer people actually board airplanes because the fuel surcharge is $100+ each way, you can bet that there will be more pressure to find actual alternative ways to travel, or at least make planes fly across the ocean on a single thimble of jet fuel. I highly doubt that we're going back to steam ships.

Phew!

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is also much more seriously damaged than press accounts disclose. It’s here that supertankers from overseas (used to) offload. They have no place else to do it. They’re too big.

The infrastructure is gone, the people are gone, and the US economy will be on life support very, very quickly.

Wow. It boggles the mind that for people so obsessed about money and who knew one day we’d see such a disaster, that they’d be so unprepared to divert production elsewhere. Even if you forget about the people, I would imagine they would have thought, what if?

Interesting article Cam.

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

I like your thinking leapfish! I needed someone to take away some worry. :o)

[c9.livejournal.com]

Agreed -- investment inventives will definitely change the landscape significantly. I looked into ethanol and biodiesel, and while good, they are far less efficient than oil, on an Energy Returned On Energy Invested basis. Something like 30-1 for oil, and 3-1 for biodiesel. Another issue I read about was the problem of finding enough arable land to grow all the bio for the diesel, since we still need to grow food. I don't know how big of an issue it really is, but one extreme site said "if we decided to power all of our automobiles with ethanol, we would need to cover 97 percent of our land with corn."

I am eager to see the dramatic changes that we'll undergo in the next few years. ...and a little nervous.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Vinny's good at that. Far smarter than I.

[lifein2x3.livejournal.com]

Looks like it took a natural disaster to get people scared enough about the End of Oil... maybe now we'll see some kind of serious, sober planning.

Then again, pigs could fly out of my ass.

Also, I've added both you and leapfish, since we have quite a few friends in common who mention you guys. Had to see what all the fuss was about. ;-)

[bonoboboy.livejournal.com]

While I think you are indeed correct about this not quite the end of the world as the article hints, I think we still need to state these kinds of things NOW, while we still may have a small chance to change things before we're to the point of no turning back. A week ago, nobody cared a fuck about Peak Oil and how we've based our entire infrastructure on a finite resource that's on its way out. With end-of-the-world like articles and bitch-slaps to the public, however, maybe we'll get the public more concerned and motivated to change things.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Most excellent! I hope we create sufficient fuss for you. :)

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

I don't think that biodiesel is the pancea - of course we can't grow forests of corn, but kind of like how governments are right now treating wind energy, it reduces dependence on a single non-renewable source.

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

That's not going to happen. Nothing is going to happen NOW, and nothing will ever happen with the flick of a switch. As smart as we are as humans, it's also our tendancy to be lazy. As long as people can afford oil, they're going to buy oil. Oil can be $10, $100 or $1,000 per liter, and there will always be someone who can (1) afford it and (2) make up enough excuses as to why it's easier to continue buying oil, instead of switching to alternative X or Y.

While there exists limited technology to replace car fuel, or at least reduce how much we use, there are many processes that still depend on fuels, and don't have alternatives. Plastics use fuel. There doesn't appear to be an alternative to jet fuel anywhere yet. I have no proof, but even petroleum jelly must be made of fuel (it's in the name!), but I suppose we could use aloe vera instead :-P

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

Thanks, Matt. I was afraid that I'd get slammed for taking even a moderate response. People are pretty passionate these days.

[leapfish.livejournal.com]

Oh! My thought process is slow tonight. One potential area for research is attempting to develop a method to increase the return from biodiesel. Maybe when we burn biodiesel, we're cracking the wrong compounds. Maybe there is a way to make it more efficient in engines. That's just the point - it's in its infancy, so there hasn't been substantial work on it. Once people really turned their focus to computers, you saw with your own two eyes how small and inexpensive they got in just a decade!

As much as a lot of people are afraid, I'm kind of excited. I think we're going to witness some real human ingenuity.

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

oops, yeah, I may have even gone a little off the wall myself at some point. Again though, I really liked what you had to say and also what you've written below. g'night! :)

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

See now, I worry about your self-confidence living with such a great guy like leapfish. Sure Vinny is hot enough to get a hot guy like he did, and smart enough to marry him too, but you gotta make sure to remember how great you are as well.

Yup, that *Vinny*, he’s a good one. :)

(great user pic by the way!)

Sorry, I’m done now.