What would you do if there were no cars, and no computer chips?

[c9]

I've posted on Peak Oil before, but I've been thinking about it more lately and a couple facts bear repeating, and disseminating widely.

Some points to ponder:

1. The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 27-54 barrels, which equates to 1,100-2,200 gallons, of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the car’s final weight.
2. The production of one gram of microchips consumes 630 grams of fossil fuels. According to the American Chemical Society, the construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels in addition to 70.5 pounds of water.
3. The construction of the average desktop computer consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.
4. The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due to the "purity and sophistication of materials (needed for) a microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine or ten computers is enough to produce an automobile."

Numbers Here

The 'lower 48' US states reached their peak oil point (meaning they've used over half) in 1972. The US has been running out of oil for your entire life. I'm not even going to go into what some people claim this proves about US foreign policy, you can do math. But separate from that, think about what's happened in the past 30+ years: increased population, increased production of *everything*, increased consumption of *everything*. Now think about how much of the stuff you buy has plastic (petrochemicals), how much power you use (to run the computer you're sitting at right now), how much you drive... this affects you, is the point I'm trying to make.



Anyway, that first chart is production over time, and the bell curve is obvious. If we look at worldwide production, it's not as clear, as you can see. The problem is that pictures speak far louder than words, and at least a few of you looked at that and said "he's just making this shit up, you can't tell the bell curve from those points!" And I agree, it's not valid in and of itself. So here's something better:



In the 1980's OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) started to tie their quotas (and therefore production, and therefore income) to their known reserves of oil. So there's an incentive to lie. And lie they do! Check out these numbers (numbers are in billions of barrels) from the BP Statistical Review. From An Introduction to Peak Oil:

As soon as it became economically expedient to exaggerate the size of oil reserves, OPEC nations immediately claimed a doubling - even a trebling - of proven reserves. And rather than run the risk of losing a share of their quota, there’s a curious reluctance to admit that producing oil actually depletes reserves. Kuwait, for instance, throughout the nineties was pumping between of 600 and 750 million barrels of oil per year (according to the same source… the BP Stat Review) yet saw no commensurate reduction in reserves. Presumably they coincidentally discovered exactly the same amount of new stock as they produced each year. It seems like a lot of OPEC nations do that.

Either that, or the BP Statistical Review is a tissue of lies.

Well, based upon the evidence I’m going to make that call… the BP Statistical Review; the “official” reckoning of global crude oil reserves; is a tissue of lies. And it is obscuring the imminent approach of the peak availablity of hydrocarbons.

The rig count over the last 12 years has reached bottom. This is not because of low oil price. The oil companies are not going to keep rigs employed to drill dry holes. They know it but are unable and unwilling to admit it. The great merger mania is nothing more than a scaling down of a dying industry in recognition of the fact that 90% of global conventional oil has already been found.
- Goldman Sachs, advice to investors, August 1999

So the question becomes, what do we do now?

Comments

[jdhorner.livejournal.com]

to sum it up for those of you who didn't read his entire post:

we're running out of oil.
freak out.

(and cam -- they've been teaching that to us young'ns in grade school for years now... is this new to you?/canada?)

[c9.livejournal.com]

No, it's not new to me or Canada. But look around, Josh. Decision makers are busy ignoring the idea, and people the world over are buying more cars, driving more, consuming more, and not considering what would happen if they suddenly couldn't. The average piece of food in Canada has driven more than 5,000 miles to get to your table. How do we fix that? Almost all food grown today uses fertilizers which are generated using oil. How do we fix that? Thinking about it just about drives me batty.

I'm trying to share stuff I'm reading because it's well explained, and will possibly help more people think about their habits. I'm just as bad, BTW, I don't claim otherwise.

You said it yourself: "freak out." Who exactly is freaking out currently? Something like 0.000001% of the population. Nothing will change if that number doesn't change.

[jdhorner.livejournal.com]

no one will care until it's time to go into crisis mode... it's the downfall of industrialized society. period.

however, there are those of us who try and do our part to help things along. we don't own a car, we recycle, we use all energy-efficient electronic when possible, we have C-F light bulbs, we don't flush every 10 seconds, etc... there is only so much that individuals can do... and i'm not saying that it's ineffective, because, as you and i both know, when that one person is multiplied by even just one city, we're talking 3 to 4 million people doing the same thing. so one person multiplied CAN help.

but none of it matters, at all, period, when nothing is being done at the above-the-consumer level.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Precisely.

[bonoboboy.livejournal.com]

I'm certainly one who has been keeping an eye on this. I especially became interested after taking my geology class last semester. The top two crises facing the world, my professor suggested were:

1. Overpopulation, and
   
2. The end of our petrolium supplies.


Frankly, I'm actually looking forward to the end of industrialization. It's selfish, greedy, environmentally unfriendly, and a HUGE waste of so many resources. I also see it as the end of the control of government by corporations (moreso in the U.S. than here, since I don't think it's quite so bad here). Of course, some have speculated a more doomsday type of reaction, with countries going to war for the leftover oil, other countries breaking apart and exploding into civil war, etc.

Me? I'm hoping that the entire world will learn from this collaps. Perhaps figure out more environmentally friendly ways of handling things? I also think that we'll see a lot of people die through this crisis, such as those who have special medical needs and whatnot. This is also a good thing, I think, just because we have indeed already exceeding healthy population numbers.

Anyhow, there's also a possibility that human inginuity just might save us all, with things like fiber-optics based lighting (from the sun), and paint that helps take toxins out of the air and neutralizes them.

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

Hey Cam. That’s some interesting and scary stuff. I had no idea the production of microchips relied so heavily on fossil fuels. Is it what goes into the chip or the equipment that produces and transports the chip and its materials that uses it? Scary considering how dependant we are (and how much more we will be). If I understand correctly too the disposal of this stuff has become a major issue (I think we ship a ton of it to Africa where it ends up in landfills to pollute ground water and be picked over for materials).

But about the bigger issue of people not doing anything to fix it. I have a hard enough time reading and understanding this stuff and I'm no smarty but I don’t think I’m out-of-the-ordinary stupid either. I imagine for most people like me seeing an article on this just isn’t something they’re willing to put time into understanding. And anything too simplified just sounds too much like a doomsday theory to give credit. I don’t know if it’s that people don’t care but rather that they just don’t understand.

I don’t know what to do either.

M.

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

I've actually seen some of the fiber-optics installed that use the sun to light homes/buildings, but is the paint that removes toxins from the air something real?

I'm hoping for the human ingenuity route. :)

Matt

[c9.livejournal.com]

Re chips: I think it's both.

I agree completely, many people aren't consciously ignoring it, they're just told by industry and government that everything is just fine, so why worry? I read that Canadians use so much energy and so many resources on average that if every human used as much, we'd need five Earths -- and yet most of us think of ourselves as environmentally-aware!

I worry that everyone will be forced to learn more because gas will triple in price, thousands upon thousands will be laid off, and nobody will be ready for it. Scary stuff.

[c9.livejournal.com]

Forgot to ask this before: what exactly are they teaching in grade school on this topic? Are they teaching that oil could *completely* run out in the next ten years? Or that "oil is a fossil fuel" ? Because those are very different, and many say equally true, statements.

[bonoboboy.livejournal.com]

The paint-toxin thing is still in the works, but it seems to be doing well. It was actually made as a white paint (IIRC) that isn't supposed to get dirty, and one of the side effects was that it also removes pollutants from the air (and neutralizes them)! So, not necessarily human ingenuity, but all the same. I read about it recently on a slashdot.org article.

And yeah, I'm sort of hoping secretly for ingenuity to kick in too, as long as we all learn a lesson in the end as well. Hey, what can I say, I'm diabetic and rely on our current society model to survive!

[halimattfax.livejournal.com]

...and one of the side effects was that it also removes pollutants from the air (and neutralizes them)! So, not necessarily human ingenuity, but all the same.

That’s how so many of the best discoveries are made. For a bit I actually worked for Canadian Diabetes and it was neat to learn about all the stuff that was discovered unintentionally – or by looking for something else. You’re dependant on our current society model because you're diabetic??

:)

-M

[bonoboboy.livejournal.com]

I remember that Viagra was also an accidental discovery as well. :D

And yeah - I'm type 1 diabetic, so I have to have insulin. My guess is that when/if our current model shuts down, I may no longer have a place to go for insulin.

[simplisticton.livejournal.com]

No doubts at all, it's going to be very, very bad. Move out of large population centres. Sell your car. Move next to where you work and learn how to grow your own food. Acquire some skills that will be useful in a non-technological agrarian barter economy (yeah, I'm screwed).

I'm not kidding. It might not get that bad in our lifetimes, but it could certainly do. Between the destruction of the middle class and the deregulation of industry and corporations, the oncoming economic crisis will be ten times worse than the Great Depression. The energy crunch will be 100 times worse than that minor blip in the 70's. It really *is* all going to hell and the best we can do is prepare for it, because it's far too late to stop it.

[vorpal.livejournal.com]

Decision makers are busy ignoring the idea, and people the world over are buying more cars, driving more, consuming more, and not considering what would happen if they suddenly couldn't.

I completely agree with this... the unfettered optimism of the US government in light of possible oil shortages is absurd. They seem to have adopted an attitude of "if we turn a blind eye to the problem, it will simply go away". This has largely spread to the American population, whose consumption per capita (from what I've read) is just mind blowing. They'd rather live in blissful ignorance and enjoy their current lifestyles than risk having to make major life changes in an effort to create a plan for a sustainable society.

I mean, the waste that we indulge in (with regards to oil and other commodities) just boggles my mind. Apart from Canada and the US, I can't imagine another country in the world where you could head to a grocery store, buy a "premium" head of lettuce in a huge, thick plastic box, only to have the cashier wrap the plastic box in a transparent plastic fruit and vegetable bag before putting it in the store's carryout plastic bag simply because your hot dogs might accidentally touch it (which she also wraps in another transparent plastic bag) and taint it.

While I pessimistically think that the next 50 years are going to be extremely messy (resource competition will make things between countries and between individuals ugly), I sincerely hope that human innovation will surprise me, as when faced with horrible challenges, we're often quite brilliant.

I do my part by recycling, taking public transportation or biking almost exclusively, reusing what I can, etc, but it feels to me like sticking a band aid on a dam that's ready to burst. The lack of caring by society in general just boggles my mind... my old roomates, for example, would leave their apartment in the morning with every light on. Their excuse? Their hydro is covered in their rent costs. How is that a justification? My next door neighbours have placed... get this... a high power air conditioner on their balcony, aimed through their wide open patio door into the apartment. It just makes me want to rip my hair out, and things like that are why I'm completely convinced that we're so fucked that it's not even funny. I will continue to do my part to absolve myself of the guilt I would feel when our downward spiral picks up ascent, but I don't hold much in the way of hope.

(My Swiss Chalet dinner - which just arrived while typing this in a variety of non-reusable plastic containers - only affirms my opinion.)