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Profile 11: Calgary Centre
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c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!Riding: Calgary Centre
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P48006.pdf
More info on your riding
In riding 48006, nearly 21 per cent of people are immigrants, with a wide range of ethnocultural groups represented.The service sector is the major employer here. Nearly 24 per cent of residents hold a university degree. Average family income was $85,530 in 2001, and unemployment was 5.1 per cent.
Population: 117,439
In 2004, Conservative candidate Lee Richardson defeated Liberal Julie Turnbull.
The former Calgary Centre was Tory territory from 1968 to 1993, and was dominated for 21 of those years by Harvie Andre, who held a number of cabinet positions in PC governments. The Reform took over in 1993 and 1997. In 2000, the Tories returned, with then-leader Joe Clark unseating Eric Lowther by 4,304 votes.
(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)
2006 Candidates:
Trevor Grover (Canadian Action Party)
John N. Johnson (Green Party of Canada)
Heesung Kim (Liberal Party of Canada)
Brian Pincott (New Democratic Party)
Lee Richardson (Conservative Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Recent Election Results:
LIB CPC PC CA REF NDP OTHER 2004 29.9% 51.2% 8.5% 10.5% 2000 9.8% 46.0% 38.5% 2.8% 2.7% 1997 32.6% 18.6% 40.1% 6.1% 2.6%Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Reform (1993-2000), and PC (1968-1993).
Pretty conservative in its winners, but still a strong showing by non-right-wing parties (for Alberta, that is). Green got 10% in 2004. Crazy! There's no wondering which way the riding will go this time, it'll be Tory again for sure.
www.electionprediction.org says: Conservative, no contest.
In this riding, the NDP typically runs third. A vote for the Liberals will likely have little effect, so vote for the party you wish to have funding.
Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is not supportive, but did receive a C from Egale Canada for GLBT support. His party got an F, so that's something.
Explanations and non-riding-specific information:
LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP
www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).
Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.
Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.
Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.
Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.
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It's amazing to watch Québec now -- it was considered pretty locked up back in December, but now it really could shift. Even Duceppe is nervous (not about his seat of course).
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