Profile 13: Westmount—Ville-Marie

[c9]

c9's Pretty Clearly Left-Leaning Riding Write-ups!

Riding: Westmount—Ville-Marie
Map: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/maps/P24075.pdf
More info on your riding

Riding 24075, Westmount—Ville-Marie, is an affluent central Montreal riding. The average family income in this riding is among the highest in Canada at $110,968, and the unemployment rate is 8.9 per cent.

According to the 2001 census, 37 per cent have English as a first language, while only 29 per cent have French — the third lowest in Quebec. More than 29 per cent have a first language other than English or French and there are significant Chinese and Italian communities. The total immigrant population is more than 32 per cent. More than 40 per cent of the population have university degrees, the highest rate of any riding in Canada.

Population: 97,226

In 2004, Liberal Lucienne Robillard won a third term in Westmount-Ville Marie with 56 per cent of the vote. She was first elected in a 1995 byelection in St-Henri-Westmount. She was appointed minister of labour in 1995, and minister of citizenship and immigration in 1996. She became president of the Treasury Board and minister responsible for infrastructure in 1999, portfolios she held until 2003. In 2003, Prime Minister Paul Martin appointed her minister of industry and minister responsible for the Economic Development Agency for the regions of Quebec. He appointed her minister of intergovernmental affairs in 2004, and minister of human resources and skills development in 2005.

The former St-Henri riding was Liberal from 1925 to 1974. Westmount was Liberal from 1940 to 1974, except for a PC win in 1958. In the newly configured St-Henri-Westmount, Liberal Don Johnston, incumbent from Westmount, won in 1979, 1980 and 1984. He was appointed president of the Treasury Board in 1980, minister for economic development, minister of state for science and technology in 1983, minister of justice and attorney general in 1984. He left the Liberal caucus in 1988 to sit as an Independent. Liberal David Berger won in 1988 and 1993 but resigned in 1994 and later was appointed Canadian ambassador to Israel.

(writeup above primarily from cbc.ca)

2006 Candidates:
Sophie Fréchette (Bloc Québécois)
Serge Lachapelle (Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada)
Louise O'Sullivan (Conservative Party of Canada)
Lucienne Robillard (Liberal Party of Canada) (incumbent)
Julie Sabourin (Green Party of Canada)
Bill Sloan (Communist Party of Canada)
Eric Wilson Steedman (New Democratic Party)

Recent Election Results:

	BQ	LIB	CPC	PC	CA	REF	NDP	OTHER
2004	14.8%	55.8%	10.1%				12.0%	7.3%
2000	10.7%	60.2%		12.0%	4.4%		5.2%	7.5%
1997	11.3%	60.1%		17.4%			5.7%	5.6%

Prior to 1997, the area's MP was: Liberal since 1925. Seriously. Well, except for the 1958 election. But that's a good winning streak.

This riding has the distinction of being the last in Québec, alphabetically. I predict it will also have the distinction of being the very last seat held by the Liberals the day they lose the other 74 seats in Québec. Ridiculously safe seat. Surreal, really.

www.electionprediction.org says: Liberal, no question.

In this riding, the NDP typically is fourth. Vote for the party you want to have funding, because it ain't goin' anywhere, as they say.

Hot Issue: Equal Marriage. The incumbent is very supportive -- an A from Egale Canada.


Explanations and non-riding-specific information:

LIB = Liberal Party (leader Paul Martin)
CPC = Conservative Party (leader Stephen Harper)
PC = Progressive Conservative (leader Joe Clark in 2000, Peter MacKay at merger), merged with CA to form CPC in 2003
CA = Canadian Reform Conservative Alliance (leader Stockwell Day), merged with PC to form CPC in 2003
REF = Reform Party (leader Preston Manning), dissolved to form CA in 2001
NDP = New Democratic Party (leader Jack Layton)
OTHER = Green Party, Christian Heritage Party, Marijuana Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, etc.
Incumbent = current MP

www.electionprediction.org uses carefully considered local predictions in each riding to predict the election outcome. It achieved highly accurate predictions in 2004 (87.58%) and 2000 (92.3%).

Theoretically, voting NDP can split the left-of-centre vote and allow the second-place Conservative candidate to come up the middle and win the seat. In 2004, the NDP estimates they lost 7 seats due to this. The problem is that in many ridings, the NDP are actually in first or second place, so voting "strategically" as some call it actually costs them the riding. Please consider your riding carefully, regardless of the national polls. Remember that an election in Canada is actually 308 small elections, not one big one. If you vote for someone other than your actual favoured candidate, it's your own fault when you get an MP you disagree with.

Additionally, remember that your vote has more power than it used to, even in completely locked ridings. Every vote provides federal funding to political parties, currently about $1.75 per vote per year. That means that you're making a political donation in a sense, so make sure it goes to someone you think deserves it.

Sources: cbc.ca, elections.ca, electionpredition.org, egale.ca, and my own brain.

Disclaimer: Your vote is your choice. If you think I'm wrong go ahead and (a) comment about it, and (b) vote your heart. I can take it.